Category: Uncategorized

The Olympics have started a week ago. We finally have a chance to see history being made tomorrow if our country’s fastest swimming torpedo can clinch a medal in the finals and beat Michael Phelps too 🙂

One has to give kudos to Brazil for being able to get this Olympics off the ground. Even as its economy is suffering badly and they can ill afford to spend precious funds to organize the Olympics, they have managed to prepare Rio in time for the games which will be watched by almost everyone on planet Earth. Coupled with the political mess they are in at the moment, no one could have assumed that they could pull it off. President Dilma Rousseff has been suspended, pending impeachment trial of budget manipulation. The ongoing Petrobras scandal is also implicating many politicians currently holding positions in the coalition government. The rich and middle class who traditionally rule the country are now facing a political backlash from the rest of the population (sounds familiar? Philippines Duterte, US Trump/Clinton). The people have had enough of the corruption and are rising to get their voices being heard. When the Olympics are over, I would not be surprised if the country goes into a full blown political meltdown.

Meanwhile, we are anxiously waiting for tomorrow morning to see if Schooling can claim glory for our country. I wish him all the best!

 

 

There are so many twists and turns on the 1MDB saga that it is worthy of a spy thriller. I bet someone is already writing a book on it and the movie should be out by next year : “The Wolf of Wall Street, Part 2”.

It is amazing that after so long, no one is held accountable for a fiasco that is hurting a country so badly. It stinks to the core. Even as we see new revelations being made public every month, it still does not cease to surprise me. How can it have gone so wrong? By trying to sweep everything under the carpet, the dirt has already formed a huge bump under the surface.

Back in 2012, there were already rumours in the banking circle of a big transaction done by Goldman Sach for a government-linked company that yielded a fat profit margin for the investment bank. Apparently, 1MDB urgently needed to raise the funds quickly and GS was the only one willing to do it. It was also just before election time. The bank extracted its pound of flesh by guaranteeing the success of the bond issuance in advance, but the company had to give a big haircut to GS. Talks in the market then were that the company will be paid 90 cents to the dollar, while GS will sell the bond at par. Effectively, the bank gets a 10 cent spread on top of the fees it will earn. WSJ eventually revealed that GS made up to 16% on the transaction.

Funnily, at that time in 2012, I was also interviewing with GS for a job. The person I was talking to at that time was very closely linked to the senior government officials in that country. I suspect that he was also part of the team that closed the deal. About a year later, he left GS and so did many others.

The circle of investigation is widening every day. More regulators are jumping on the bandwagon to demand answers. Singapore has even closed down a private bank as a result. Everyone involved in 1MDB is still in denial, finger pointing at others being the favourite course of action. Strange things have also happened where people were silenced and push aside to clamp down on the truth. When will this all end? Is there hope for the country? When can we see the movie?

 

 

 

 

I really cannot believe that stock prices are still hitting new highs, even as global growth is stagnant and more companies are showing declining profits or going into the red.

Some point to the fact that in an interest rate race by central banks to run down to zero and below in order to spur spending, asset bubbles are popping everywhere and equities are the main beneficiaries of cheap money. Property prices are also the other asset that is still rising, but at a slower pace now, as most countries have incorporated measures and curbs to prevent locals from being priced out of their own city.

The only sector that is coming down to earth fast seems to be the banking sector. We have seen global banks like DB, CS and SCB losing 50 to 90% of their value recently. Price to Book ratios of these 3 banks is now between 0.25 to 0.60, a historical low. This is implying that the market sees a lot of hidden unknowns still in their portfolio, plus difficult to measure litigation costs. Most European banks are in serious trouble with worsening NPL situations. Are banks the leading indicators to an end of the frothy stock markets?

The strategic big picture for investors is getting harder to forecast. The crystal ball seems to have fogged over. When in doubt, I guess it is better to stay on the sidelines at the expense of opportunity cost. This feels like the scenario of a rabbit that is staring into the headlights of an oncoming truck. You know something bad is coming, but you cannot get off the cheap credit candy induced ride…

 

As we celebrate our 51st year of nationhood today, I am proud as a citizen to reflect on how far we have come while recognising the uncertainties of the future before us. I am thankful for the contributions of one man who has steered the country to where we are today.

Though he has left us last year, his legacy remains with us every day around us. My generation has benefited tremendously from his far-sighted vision that has made our tiny red dot a bright shining beacon of hope as we strive to move ahead.

I am confident that his son, the current Prime Minister, has the foresight to bring us to the next stage of nation building with forward thinking and planning. He is constantly highlighting our vulnerabilities and addressing them head on with robust action plans.

We must continue to be nimble, to turn weaknesses into strengths, to identify key growth areas. Our multi-racial harmony cannot be taken for granted. It was slowly built up over the years through blood and tears, and it only takes a small spark to destroy all that we have fought for. We should treasure what we have now and ensure that the next generation successfully picks up the mantle.

Majulah Singapura!

We, the citizens of Singapore,
pledge ourselves as one united people,
regardless of race, language or religion,
to build a democratic society
based on justice and equality
so as to achieve happiness, prosperity
and progress for our nation.

http://www.straitstimes.com/opinion/iron-resolve-to-hold-together

 

Pikachu has landed on our shores!!!

Over the weekend, Pokemon Go was quietly launched in Asia and everyone went crazy. Suddenly, we see kids who never would have wanted to leave their rooms coming outdoors and walking miles to actually hunt for these virtual monsters! My teenage son, whom we have been nagging to go for a morning run for ages, woke up early on Sunday morning and declared that he was going for a “run/walk”. We found him wandering far from home with his iPhone in front of him as we happen to be driving past a shopping mall later that morning. Amazing!

This huge social game phenomenon is already taking the whole world by storm. I was told that 10% of the world population are currently playing. While we hear of some dangerous incidents of overly occupied players getting injured,  the positives totally outweigh the negatives.

Families now have a thing in common and picnics are in vogue again, especially in places where there are multiple PokeStops/Gyms/Lures to be found. Kids are actually looking forward to going outdoors rather than being cooped up in their rooms playing MMORPG games. Malls are also getting into the game by buying lures to attractive human traffic into the shopping centers – Lures only cost USD 1 and all players around it benefit. The marketing implications are just too staggering to imagine. Maybe this game alone can help jump-start the stagnant global economy 😉

Like email/FB/Whatsapp, Pokemon Go could be the next game changer in developing a new stage of social media, bringing everyone on planet earth even closer together.

By the way, older son has reached level 11 on day 2. Shssshhh….

 

It used to be that China looks to the West for ideas. AliBaba, TenCent and Baidu all copied the best of Facebook, Amazon and Google to create their own unique replicas to suit the local needs. In China, there are usually no black and white divisions but there such are lotsa grey in between. Given the antique legal system, these new internet companies have strived to push the perceived boundaries to their limits. Even the central government now realized how powerful the change agents have become. Without banking licenses, they have created the biggest money market funds, circumvented the interest rate rules and utilized P2P platforms to marry demand (retail yield seekers) to supply (SME/retail seeking funds) efficiently.

Nowadays, it is the West trying to catch up with China. Take for example, mobile tech. Most local Chinese hardly carry cash in their wallets anymore. The mobile phone is used for everything – cab fares, groceries, convenience stores. Same day delivery is the norm and one does not really need to leave your apartment to get supplies. You can even get a live fish delivered to your doorstep for tonight’s dinner. Chinese logistic companies use cutting edge tech to reach out to all parts of the country in the most effective way possible. 80-year-old grandmothers are already using their handsets to use apps to call and pay for taxi fares. The top drone companies are all Chinese. They have been using it for documentaries for years. Look for “A Bit of China” food porn on youtube to see the amazing shots. Almost everyone in China has an eWallet to effect payments seamlessly, epayments having started more than 14 years ago. The capabilities of WeChat and Alipay are astounding with the eco-systems that they have created. There are no comparable ones to be found outside of China. Facebook is only now trying to catch up.

With the push by China to urbanize its population quickly to create internal consumer demand, mobile tech has grown by leaps and bounds to help achieve this aim. The rest of the world slowly wakes up to this great social experiment and stares in awe. I have attended a number of fintech demo/graduation/bootcamp events over the last 12 months and most of what the new fintech companies are trying to do now have already been done on a large scale in China for years.

 

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/03/technology/china-mobile-tech-innovation-silicon-valley.html?_r=0

Came across an interesting Japanese concept the other day. On further reading, I discovered that it is similar to something I strongly believe in and it has applicability to life in general.

“Zanshin (Japanese: 残心) is a state of awareness, of relaxed alertness, in Japanese martial arts. A literal translation of zanshin is “remaining mind”. In several martial arts, zanshin refers more narrowly to the body’s posture after a technique is executed.”

To get to the end game, Zanshin emphasizes that the process to get there is all important. That if one concentrates fully all the steps to reach there, the successful end result will simply just become a by-product.

Taking the example of a bow and arrow, the point is to not worry about hitting the target. The archer must have a full interest to embrace each piece of the process in order to develop complete awareness and focus. The archer will then find the bullseye every time he shoots.

It is not the target that matters. It is not the finish line that matters. It is the way we approach the goal that matters. Everything is aiming – Zanshin.

We carry it with us everywhere in life. To perfect the steps in order to reach the desired result. It is similar to my favourite subject in Uni days – Operation Management. If we break down the process into their detailed tasks, checking to ensure that each step is robust enough and then practise them to perfection, success is assured.

 

 

 

 

It has been a long time ago since I entered the army to begin my 2.5 years of compulsory national service at 18. I went in as a naive, innocent and pampered teenager and it eventually molded me into a man, rich in new life experiences.

Initially, it was a total cultural shock to suddenly have to bunk in with 39 other strangers for the first 3 months, in an army camp located on an island. This was followed by another 3 months of vocational training before I was assigned to my permanent home for the remaining time.

As luck would have it, I was the only person in my batch that was sent to the Air Force. I joined a team that was in charge of an island which was used for live firing practice by the fighter pilots. We were a small group of about 15, made up of a motley bunch of people from all walks of life. Being better educated but the most junior ranking newbie meant that I was at the mercy of the older guys there. I grew up fast. Learn to curse like a pro and was able to describe in dialect terms the opponent’s parents private parts in graphic detail. Somehow, I managed to pull through it all. We were required to stay on the live firing islands for a few days at a time and none of them could cook a decent meal. As I was interested in cooking since I was young, I decided to try my hand at this. They were my guinea pigs. Thankfully, they liked what I dished out and hence my social ranking order notched up a little.

If I could sum up my overall experience in the army, it will be that I discovered how fortunate I was. I made friends with a lot of the GD (General Duties) guys on my team who treated the army as a transit station with zero plans for the future. For me, I had the bright prospect of going to the uni after it was over.

Some colourful characters I still remember till this day : Teo, the loan shark runner with the golden necklace and bundles of cash; Yeo, the bulldog looking one with a soft heart; Lin, the wise looking one who would eventually return back to Holland to work as a cook in his uncle’s shop; Ong, who started a vegetarian noodle shop in a hawker center; Ling, going back to helping his mom run her vegetable shop in the wet market.

All of us shared a short time together and then parted ways forever. As we were young men not jaded by life’s ups and downs yet, we learned to enjoy each other’s company as best as we could during difficult times. I learnt about human nature and behaviours, made friends and toughen up. I began to appreciate my family even more than before, knowing that my parents will always be there for me and to help me create a better future for myself. I hope that my two sons will also gain positive experiences like me when it is time for them to serve the nation.