Category: Uncategorized

The much talked about 2nd wave of Covid19 had arrived and practically hit all countries around the world. Unfortunately, some have not even completed the 1st wave yet and version 1.5 came when they reopened too soon.

Countries that were praised for flattening the curve have seen a resurgence of cases from multiple venues. These are mainly from external sources that could have easily slipped through. This had resulted in an urgent clamp down again for countries like South Korea, Hong Kong and New Zealand. Until the vaccine is discovered, new waves are inevitable as a country cannot completely shut itself from the rest of the world and its borders are every so porous.

After the virus experience of the last 3 months, we are beginning to see that a simple action like wearing a mask while outside is a very strong deterrent to slowing the spread of the virus in the community. A study showed that if 2 persons wear masks at the same time, the probability of one infecting the other will drop to only 1.5%. This very simple rule of making everyone wear a mask while outside is very well understood and practised by Asians and some Europeans in general. But why is it so difficult for the most powerful country in the world to understand and implement?

It was a terrible week for the orange moron that refuses to wear a mask. His numbers are getting worse and he has gone into full denial mode. Bolton’s new book confirmed as much that a kid is running the White House. Saying that cases are higher now because of more testing is a really oxymoronic statement. So if we reduce testing, then there will be fewer cases and he will look good. It’s like someone saying that if I imagine hard enough that the moon is green, then it will become green in my mind and everyone is wrong if they see otherwise.

America is a big mess now as everything is chaotic and there is no adult left in the White House. The lack of leadership is so apparent that it is becoming embarrassing to be identified as an American nowadays. As the most powerful person in the world, if you think wearing a mask is undemocratic and sissy, wouldn’t all your followers also mimic you and ignore the medical professionals?

The stupidity of this came to a head when I saw this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=433b5RJ9BME&feature=youtu.be

The Covidiots claim nature and religion mandates to not wanting to wear masks and denying all scientific facts. Really?!?!? Look what too much crazy social media can do to a normal person… While it is so laughable, choosing between freedom and dying/spreading the virus to your love ones is such a no brainer choice, right? Yet I am proven wrong in this video. The insanity of it all. What don’t you get? Is everything you read a conspiracy theory? Can you even just fact check them first? I guess not as your leader, the American president, spews lies and racist remarks every other day.

A quiet week for me as we go into phase 2 last week and more “normal” activities like dining in restaurants and working out in gyms again, but with a lot of new pre-conditions. Better than lockdown, I guess. Into the new normal we go.

The other big news was the announcement of elections with a 3 weeks timeline. Its the shortest ever, due to Covid19. The circus show will start soon with a lot of mudslinging and fierce rhetorical exchanges. We see 11 opposition parties challenging the incumbent this time. The likelihood of walkovers will be very low and the opposition parties had already worked out gentlemen’s agreements to avoid 3 cornered fights.

Meanwhile, I am making good progress on my 2nd set of deliverables for my current project. We also had our monthly Myanmar meeting via MS teams, which is becoming a way of life and work nowadays. The next 2 weeks of election fever will probably grip and consume all our minds and our energies. It may be a huge upset to the ruling party this time. But then again, that was what we said during the last 2 elections too…

This week was a time of surprise and happiness since my weekly countdown 4 months ago. The government had swiftly announced a move towards phase 2 of a 3 steps guide to reopening the S’pore economy.

It was earlier than we expected as we were previously primed to only consider that by end Jun at the earliest. We suspect that it was mainly due to the fact that elections are around the corner and that they need to do it faster before the deadline of Apr 2021. Most countries around the world are also slowly opening up, so it would be strange if we do not follow the trend and continue with the lockdown.

It is not a return to normal but an in-between situation before phase 3 – back to where we were before. Phase 3 is conditional on a vaccine being found though. We are never ever returning to the old normal again. The last few months taught us that there is no return to the old ways and a new normal lies ahead of us.

It also has been encouraging news that I see more Pharmas expediting the virus research and some have moved to the next stage of human testing. It seems that a lot of brave young people have signed up as guinea pigs to be infected with Covid19 in order to test the effectiveness of the vaccine. Kudos to these brave souls!

On the personal front, my close group of friends quickly agreed to meet for lunch on Friday, the first day of the restriction relaxation. It was a surreal meeting as we almost have forgotten what it was like to go out for a meal, having been couped up at home for months. The wearing of masks outside is still compulsory, so we didn’t know when we could remove them. We finally decided that it can be removed the moment we opened the first bottle of wine and received our glasses LOL. The food came later but the wine had to be drunk fresh, I guess.

I was looking forward to the weekend as my younger son and I will be celebrating our birthdays together on Sat. The timing of phase 2 reopening seems like an early birthday present for both of us. I am proud that he has also been accepted to NUS Medical school. He will disrupt from his OCS course in NS after next week to begin school in Aug. Our first doctor in the family!

This week was also a busy one for me on the current project I am doing, setting questions for a national financial certification exam. I had submitted the first set of 125 MCQs and received comments for amendment on 52 of them. Hence I was busy spending the whole week trying to rework them to resubmit just before my Fri lunch appointment.

Where are we now on the Covid19 front? The 2nd and 3rd waves have started to pop up around China, South Korea and New Zealand, the golden standards of the world. While aggressive testing is good, it is a poor best choice solution until a vaccine is found. No amount of testing can prevent a slip up of an external infection entering an enclosed country. The inter-connectivity of global trade does not allow a country to be walled off from the world forever. Even opening up a tiny door is a risk that the virus will attack again. It has no emotions and does not discriminate.

Trump is doing his Tulsa rally tonight against all medical advice. It is truly a shit show in the making where 19,000 people packed in an enclosed environment and not wearing masks will be fertile ground for Covid19. I cannot understand the Americans. They equate wearing masks to restricting their 1st amendment, just like the right to carrying a gun. As Arnold “Terminator” Schwarzenegger said yesterday: “Anyone making it a political issue is an absolute moron,” adding that they probably “can’t read.” SAD!

Another surreal week where we see the stock market detached further from reality as everyone scrambles for an answer. Even all the top economists and fund managers in the world were wrong-footed last Friday. We may have found the answer this week. And the market had a spectacular 2,000 points crash on Thursday.

I joined an investment group on Telegram a few weeks ago and the founder decided to have our first Zoom call during mid-week. The commonality for all was that we all worked in Citibank, left a few years ago and now moving into our halftimes. Investments were a common interest.

Our first task was to try to make sense of the current market rally. With all the hard facts and numbers in front of us and knowing that Q2 results will probably be very ugly due to the full impact of the Covid19 lockdowns, the rally was unbelievable. Who or what is pushing this melt-up?

The first obvious culprits were the central banks. All were pumping rescue plans in the billions and trillions of dollars worth to support their countries’ economy. The lockdowns had stopped all business activities, disabled supply chains and created an unprecedented economic disaster for everyone. The big developed countries’ central banks like the USA, Europe and Japan were printing money like it was going out of fashion soon. Too much liquidity at super low interest rates had generated waves of hot money chasing assets. I tried to place a new fixed deposit with my bank and was politely told that they are quoting negative rates for all currencies now 🙁

Long ago, there was a wave of day trader from Japan that emerged when online FX trading became popular. They were mostly housewives who had time to kill, with an almost bottomless appetite for risk and were actively seeking higher yields. Japan interest rates were nearing zero and getting a 2% per annum yield was considered good to most of them. These formidable group of traders were named the Mrs Watanabes. They traded in all forms of JPY crosses, from AUD to EUR and even exotic ones like MXN (Mexican) and RUB (Russian) currencies. It was a positive carry trade for them – to sell JPY and buy currencies with higher interest rates as they had lost confidence in their own country – the Japan deficit is more than 200% of GDP now! They could move the markets as most participated in investment chat groups and traded via a herd mentality strategy. Unity is strength! Just don’t be the last one holding the baby when everyone bails out!

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/mrs-watanabe.asp

A new phenomenon started to develop in 2019 when American brokerage houses started to offer commission-free trading. Prior to that, an Israeli company eToro successfully pioneered social trading a few years ago where one can “copy” successful traders for as little as a few hundred dollars. Thanks to technology, no client now is too small to participate in the equity markets. CFDs and ETFs allow for multiple strategies and micro amounts to be traded. Apple at $350? You can just buy a fraction of a share. It is like Bitcoin where you can even buy for $1 worth. There is no transaction friction and economies of scale are the game – the more the merrier, no minimum size.

Then came Robinhood https://robinhood.com/us/en/ . Zero commissions and you can open an account for just $100. With the lockdowns and WFH situation, many first-timer stock investors turned to the biggest casino in the world. Aggressive gamers as young as 10 jumped into stocks like never before. To date, Robinhood has 13 million accounts. Like all gamers, chat group clans devise action plans to attack targets and drive up the prices.

One recent ridiculous example is Hertz. The company just declared bankruptcy and its share prices dropped to 50 cents from more than $60. Its bonds were trading at 40 cents to the dollar. Then the retail traders came in and pushed the price to more than $5!! Hertz has now decided to explore if it can issue shares to raise $1 billion of new capital. Amazing that a bankrupt company is actually even trying to raise funds via more equity now. If there is a demand, why not?

We live in amazing times indeed. Throw away the books as history is created every day now. The BLM (Black Lives Matter) rally continues to pick up steam. Trump is in his own alternate reality and adds kerosene to the bonfire every day. Someone forgot to tell him that as president of the USA, he is supposed to bring the country together, not to tear it apart.

Seattle has created CHAZ (Capital Hill Autonomous Zone) as a result of the escalating racial riots protesting. This is in the middle of the pandemic and Trump wants to start his rallies next week. The world has truly gone mad. A brave new world where anything goes and new morality lows are created every week.

New norms mean that we will all have to wear masks whenever we are out because of Covid19. This will continue for a long time, even after a vaccine is found. Many parts of the world like Brazil and India are now only starting to bear the full brunt of the virus. We know more now than 3 months ago when the lockdown started. But there is more to learn. The previous virus scares like H1N1 lasted up to 9 to 12 months, so we may be at a mid-point soon.

On the personal front, I just completed my first set of deliverables for the project I am currently on. It was to set questions for a financial sector certification exam. Initial feedback from the supervisor means more adjustments are needed which I will work on this weekend before starting on the second set of deliverables by early Jul. My younger son has successfully submitted his army disruption application for his medical school term that will start in Aug. And I still go for my daily morning run every day, rain or shine.

It has been a long time since we had something that overwhelms the news more than Covid19. This was a week where another developing situation took a life of its own.

All through the week from last weekend, we see demonstrators erupting all over the cities of America. Sadly, the inept handling of Trump in a crisis was magnified again. Instead of playing the commander in chief to calm the masses, he lit another fire under the burning furnace by doing more stupid things. Playing a tough guy against imaginary enemies is only good for reality TV and not real life. Upping the ante to challenge peaceful protestors is a dictatorial move.

Many people are now moved to react against the perceived double standards given to black Americans in their own country. How many more deaths under the police will it require? There are less violent crimes now than 20 years ago, but yet we see an increasing trend of black deaths where the guilty party gets unpunished. Aren’t the police force the protector of the people and not the enemy?

If it were to happen in my country, surely we will see a full investigation of it, regardless of the colour of our skin. Why is America, a developed first world country like that? Politicians call looters thugs as they steal and destroy property. When that happened in HK for 6 months last year, the same guys supported them as freedom fighters. The irony is deafening.

America has double standards for itself and the rest of the world. It brings to mind the book “Has China won?” by Kishore that I read recently. America believes that it holds a high virtue standard and wants to police the world. Yet time and again, it does to other countries the things that it will never do at home. Destroying governments that disagree with them and supporting the opposition is their means to an end and favourite past time. No wonder Putin hates them so much for helping to break up the USSR.

America is indeed a declining culture which is breaking apart now at the seams. Infrastructure is backward and everything is politicised. The group at or below the poverty line has actually seen their income decreasing in the last 25 years while the rich get richer. Why is it happening to the richest country in the world?

I am glad to see that the major companies are now beginning to take a stand on “Black lives matter” battle cry and siding with the protestors. This abhorrent behaviour by the police should be checked. Too many new deaths will not allow it to be swept under the carpet anymore.

I spent more time this week doling out more MCQ questions as part of my short term contract project. Some days, my outputs are slow and mental blocks severe. My first deadline for submission is next Friday. I think I am on track and getting into the momentum now.

I also participated in a very fruitful conference call on Monday with the founder of the consultancy group with all of the principal consultants. It was to discuss how the Covid19 situation may make many PMETs lose their jobs in the financial sector. In order to stay relevant, how can these people have a successful mid-career transition into other areas that are blossoming, like Data Analytics?

We would have the opportunity to work with a government-related body to help develop a program to help the likely to be retrenched workforce redeploy themselves into another area within the financial sector. It will be meaningful for all of us ex-bankers to give back to the industry. There will be many brainstorming sessions ahead but doing it on a pro bono basis with not deter all of us from sharing and contributing.

On the personal front, it was a week of drama with a social media scare in the family which was resolved by the end of the week. I am proud of the family member who made decisive actions to confront the issue head-on. The tide did turn from initial negative reactions to changing into a view of the group who had a sincere apology and are contrite, having learnt a life long learning lesson. The growth in maturity is a pleasant end result which will be remembered for a long time.

Another Circuit Breaker Lockdown week has passed. We seemed to have gotten used to the New Normal and each day passes with a now regular routine for me. Life will never go back to the way we used to know just a few months ago. Everything has been turned upside down on their heads.

Electronic payments had advanced faster in the last 3 months than the last 3 years. Tech has caught up and enabled the ability to work from home or anywhere as stronger video conference apps make everything possible. We are even more wired than ever before and the interconnectivity, either on a business or personal front, is even better now.

All countries have been looking to reopening their economies but at various phases. Most are mindful of the 2nd wave, but yet some are just forcing the opening to salvage their economies. The playbook for Covid19 is still being written and the whole world is going through a global social experiment to understand the virus.

Looking at the death statistics, it seems that the majority had a pre-existing condition which the virus exacerbated and made it fatal. That is why an older age group has been hit harder. Should we have a lockdown of the most vulnerable groups and allow the rest to return to normal and eventual herd immunity? Some are asking if all should suffer the shutdown and risk destroying the economy. No one has the answers yet.

We had quite a few distractions this week besides Covid19. First was Hong Kong. China had decided that it is time that they had tougher laws to control the unruly chaotic situation that the demonstrators have created last year. They will ramp through the required legislature to effect this soon.

I am not surprised by this move. China has wanted to do it earlier in the year but the virus caught everyone by surprise, hence the delay. They had probably figured that the demonstrators, with the help of outside forces, were already hell-bent on destroying HK. With their unrealistic demands and uncompromising attitude, China would have to control the disobedient child. If it results in a weaker HK, so be it since that was already the demonstrators’ intention anyway.

So sad to see the misguided youths fighting for freedom and asking for more than what the UK had to their forefathers, pre-1997. China has a bigger country at stake and will sacrifice HK if need too, to bring them back in line. As I said before, the crux of the issue is inequality and the Gini coefficient is getting worse. The gap between the rich and the poor continues to widen.

Over the last 23 years since breaking away from the UK, the HK government had failed to close this inequality gap. They have continuously sided with the property Hongs and ignored the general population. Selling limited land to the property tycoons instead of building more public housing makes the citizens even angrier. The benefits of these land sales have not benefited all citizens.

This leaves China no choice but to wield the big stick now. Using the carrot approach obviously did not work. By leaving them alone since 1997, China had allowed this festering problem to grow. It will need to address this problem head-on and stamp out the rioting with outside help once and for all.

US trying to come in to “defend” HK with more sanctions is totally hypocritical on their part. Where were they for Ukraine when Russia invaded Crimea? Many times before, it was their self-interest placed beforehand rather than for acting as a magnanimous global policeman. How many wars have they created in the Middle East in the name of defeating the perceived enemy? A pot cannot call the kettle black. Must they always interfere with every country’s internal affairs?

And now to the other story that links back to America. Another black person dying horrifically in the hands of the police. The video filmed by a bystander was so difficult to watch. The man pleading for his life but was slowly choked to death. The aftermath of the anger being released was overwhelming as riots erupted all over the country. It is a cumulation of the “Black lives matter” movement as we see incident after incident of brutality against black people, mostly in the hands of the police.

And Trump continues to talk rubbish with fake bravado, concentrating his efforts on of all things, his new war against Twitter in the midst of the Covid19 pandemic and the new racial riots. This man has no shame or empathy at all. It’s always I, me and myself only. Just when you think he hits a new low, he will prove you wrong and do something even stupider. SAD!

On the personal front, I had a good regular monthly meeting with the Myanmar team. The month of May is looking to be better than expected amidst the lockdown. We are still cautiously moving forward into June. The difficult decision now – whether we should disburse new loans. The future economic condition until the end of the year looks like it is only going to get worse.

Signed my new 2 months project work contract this week and started work on Wed. It is to provide new questions/answers for a nationally run financial services exam certification process. I have to spend a few hours every day to think up of at least 10 new multiple-choice questions on various topics. Not as easy as it looks, but at least it will keep me occupied for now and provide some new income.

We are discovering more about Covid19 every day. While the fear remains high, it is off its peak as we get used to the lockdown and getting to understand the invisible enemy better. Maybe a year from now, we will look back to this period of time in history and reminisce: “How did we manage to get through that crazy period?”

Life is becoming a sort of regular routine for me now, just to stay sane. Wake up at 6 am for my daily 5 km run to get a breath of fresh air and a view of greenery. Do some callisthenic exercises on my front porch, have breakfast and read the papers. Shower, catch up on emails, do a few conference calls and lunch. Rest of afternoon in front of the PC for various projects, readings or youtube videos. Dinner and then to retire to the bedroom to read a few chapters of the books I borrowed. Sleep by 11 and repeat above again.

Every day feels the same now, regardless of whether it is a weekday or a weekend. I count my blessings that we are luckier than most, there is no need to worry about financials and with a roof over our heads. Unbelievable that every single person in the whole world is going through the same situation, but in different ways, as the virus continues to make its presence felt.

The week started with news of success on a certain vaccine and the Fed declaring that it has more ammunition to support the markets. The stock market rally on Mon was short-lived when doubts of the effectiveness of the vaccine surfaced the following day.

I was having a discussion with a friend that there is a disconnect between the markets and the actual situation on the ground. Q1 results for most companies were already terrible but they only reflected the impact of Covid19 for just one month in Mar. Q2 results for Apr to Jun will be even worst as the full gut-punch of the virus is realized due to the lockdown. Yet the stock index is running ahead of itself as if a cure would be found soon and we will all return back to normal soon.

We were toying with buying downside protection for our remaining trimmed equity portfolio. A purchase of an S&P 500 Put option expiring after June might do the trick. I am doing more research on this topic and he had provided me with some guidance since he was an FX options trader during our time together in the American bank. I will probably decide to do something next week after further study.

The interesting thing of the week for me was the potential to start a new part-time project. I had officially joined a local consultancy company in Apr where many like-minded people with years of financial industry experience group together to leverage on our expertise to pitch for short term consultancy contracts.

The founder had also started a new Whatsapp chat group for communication purposes which is helpful to provide an ongoing platform for an exchange of ideas. He would also update us on the deals he is working on or had successfully closed, plus interesting opportunities. An interesting opportunity came along and he was checking with the group if anyone was interested. It was to help the country’s Banking and Financial body set up a new series of exam questions for one of the industry’s benchmark regulatory certification paper.

Originally, I was a bit reluctant and lazy to put my hand up for it. The founder subsequently pinged me again on this opportunity and I thought “Why not?”. I submitted my updated CV and the person in charge connected with me a few days later. I am now at the stage of looking at the details of the contract and would probably go for this. Another interesting adventure on my halftime journey is beginning.

Back to the virus. We are all getting used to the new normal now. Thanks to Covid19, the world has been turned upside down in a matter of months. There has been no previous similar crisis to refer back to, except maybe the Spanish flu pandemic that happened more than 100 years ago.

But that was a completely different era during the industrial revolution and technology was non-existent then. The only learning from that episode was that the 2nd wave killed millions as everyone’s guard was down, thinking that it was all over. They celebrated in big parades thinking that the crisis was over and the virus came back with a vengeance. That is the main fear we have now. Some countries like America are reopening as we speak, without the confidence of knowing that the 1st wave has been brought under control.

There is no going back to the world we used to know just a few months ago. Many industries will die and new ones created. Wearing masks outside is the norm now. Our world has been turned upside down. Technology has enabled a Work From Home reality. Who needs to go to an office or do business travel now? The risks and downsides outweigh the upsides by a mile. Hopeful, humanity will be reset and refocused to what really matters – more equality, greater kindness and long-lasting actions to prevent climate change.

The week passed faster than normal. Perhaps it is because we are getting used to the New Normal and Lockdown situation. Maybe it is because the 01 Jun end date is nearer now. Or could it be that we have reached a low point in our pessimism and the only way is up now?

Most countries have by now extended their lockdown to the end of May while some have started a partial reopening of their economies. Every country and city is going through their own little live experiment to find a balance between ensuring the safety of its citizen versus restarting the economy again. A very tough choice politically but saving lives should be the priority, no?

We have had a lot of 2nd wave incidents reported this week in model countries like China, South Korea and Hong Kong. While they are ready and effective in clamping down aggressively based on their earlier experience of Covid19, it still is unimaginable to me how a government can make its borders virus-proof or is able to find and quarantine all asymptomatic carriers within its population.

The American President is still trying to stick his head in the sand without any coherent national plan against the virus, except for promoting more divisive politics. With the economy shot to hell (unemployment claims another 2.9 million more this week), he is running out of people to blame for the hole he has dug himself into. His best bet now for re-election in Nov is to plant a big bullseye target at China and blame them for everything. Just finished reading the latest book by Kishore Mahbubani: “Has China won?”. Good insights about China and USA which I will probably write a longer review in another blog in the future.

There are close to 100+ project teams in the world now racing to study Covid19, to understand it better in order to provide faster detection, treatment and eventually a vaccine. A breakthrough may be very soon, I hope. Never in human history have we seen and experienced how devastating something unknown could have crippled the world in a matter of months.

The world has become accustomed to New Normals which are still developing. Many of the old ways of doing things have simply become obsolete overnight. WFH (Work From Home) is a reality now, thanks to technology advances like Zoom. New ways of connecting (private Zoom parties, birthday celebrations, new ways of entertainment) to each other while we are trapped in our homes have sprung up. Mask wearing outside is a must now. The tsunami of firms going down is just beginning as they report a horrible Q1 where business revenue dropped off a cliff to almost zero while expenses remain.

The CEO of Twitter Jack Dorsey just informed his people that they can work from home forever. Who wants to travel on business anymore if borders remain close and you get hit by a 14 days quarantine when you return? The death of the airline sector destruction is just beginning. No amount of bailout money can save an industry where almost 100% of its volume had disappeared in months and not likely to return any time soon.

The collapse in oil prices is now slowly inching up again from negative territory, but demand for it will not recover soon. Central banks flooding the markets with liquidity is just causing stock markets to diverge from reality. Comparing today with 2008 GFC, moral hazard has all but jumped off the cliff. No one is guarding the door now as the final group of policemen (aka the central banks) have given up and left the building. The debt bubble has grown exponentially. Japan is not the only one buying up its own stock and bond market now. Desperation calls for desperate actions, each man for himself in a self-preservation mode. UBI (Universal Basic Income) that was promoted by Andrew Yang may become a reality soon.

I saw a very inspiring Instagram effort this morning where many famous people congratulated the graduating Class of 2020. Graduation ceremonies have been cancelled and a dreadful employment environment awaits them. But the message is that we have to push on. This year will be a defining moment for this class of 2020 when we look back years from now. That they have conquered all odds to make the best of the situation. That they have to stay strong and push on, remembering that they have just gone through a momentous world-changing Covid19 event.

This week was also an interesting one on the personal front. The Myanmar firm I am working for has to plan and strategize daily for an ever-changing business environment. Every day, we had multiple conference calls to debate and discuss what actions were needed for the rest of May, based on Apr results. Should we be conservative or become more aggressive now? What do we forecast for the next month? Many minds brainstorming together is better than one in these uncertain times.

The best news of the week was delivered by my younger son. He was out in a field camp for his army national service most of this week till Thurs. The results of his application for medical school were out already but he only knew about it much later. We finally heard the good news on Fri night and we were so happy for him. It was one of the hardest faculty to get into and he managed to land a spot!

He has a quiet demeanour but yet can be headstrong and laser-focused once he makes up his mind. I am so proud of him. What really touched me was that he personally thanked me last night just before we went to sleep. I did not expect that and appreciated the gesture. He will be the first doctor we will have in the family.

All in all, the week seems to be less gloomy than in the previous weeks. We have mostly accepted the brave new world and its implications. Slowly, we are adapting to New Normals while I sense that humanity is picking itself up and fighting head-on into the unknown. We will bounce back and hopefully, see the major weaknesses exposed by the virus and have a higher determination to change them.

We are almost 6 months into the first case of Covid-19 and the light at the end of the tunnel is nowhere in sight yet.

Everyone is getting used to the new norms, that we have entered into a brave new world where the old way of doing things will fade away. Each and every living human on Planet Earth has been impacted by this situation. It is a black swan once in a 100 years event. To starve the virus, we had to shut the world down.

The 1st bright spot here so far is that 90+ groups around the world are now racing to address Covid-19 in various ways – testing, treatment and vaccine. There is still so much we do not know about this invisible enemy. The 2nd bright spot is that Gaia is finally given a pause to rejuvenate itself, to hopefully reduce the impact of climate change naturally. The air seems to smell fresher and the trees greener in my daily runs.

Now to the serious stuff. I pride myself as an eternal optimist but yet the facts before me are still negative for now. Zero leadership and world coordination means that we lose valuable time as we muddle along. Positive learning experiences from some countries are not passed on in a uniform way to implement across the globe. Some are still sticking their heads in the sand.

Watching American news depresses me every day. Chaos is caused by the man at the top, who seemed to be totally out of his depth and may suffer a nervous breakdown soon. Pushing witch doctor cures and denying the facts seems to be the solution for everything. It looks like no one is bothering to stand up to his ever more ridiculous actions anymore.

To declare victory and go back to normal to open the economy against the advice of medical experts is a ticking time bomb waiting to splash shit on everyone’s face. They don’t get it that the probability of 2nd and 3rd waves of infections are highly probable. Look at the examples from China, S’pore and South Korea, for goodness sake!

The main solution at the moment, absent of a vaccine, is to test, test and do more test. Testing kits and material are in short supply everywhere. Turnaround time for results in some places is still in the number of days. Most require hours and the quality of the test kits are sometimes questionable.

Let’s just look at the logistics of this and use S’pore as an example. Last week, we were told that our daily capacity for testing per day has gone up from 2,900 to 8,000 over the last month. They are now trying to push for 20 to 40k levels as soon as possible – this is really a high KPI given the shortage of kits and reagent materials available.

We have an FW (Foreign Workers) situation at the moment that flared up last month in the dormitories where they are putting up. There are 300,000 of them. As of last week, only about 30k have been tested and the infection rate was very high (30 to 40%). Luckily, most of them are young and healthy due to the manual work that they do and none are in ICU care yet. So if you have another 270k to test at a rate of 8k/day, that is another 34 days more before you are done. That does not include testing for other non-FW population ie. citizens. In totality, we have probably about close to a million FW working here. By the way. S’pore’s overall population is 7 million. To do aggressive testing will really take a long, long time.

The next question to ask is “What is the point of the testing?”. Asymptomatic carriers with no signs are still the main worry. It only requires one infected person to undo all the aggressive testing again. Our porous borders mean that the virus could slip in anytime as we open up. Until a vaccine is discovered, isn’t testing pointless?

Then again, we cannot just sit there and wait for herd immunity to happen, like in Sweden. More will die as a result. But what other solutions do we have now? We just need to buy more time. Though we know more now about the virus than 2 months ago, there is still much more we need to learn.

We are now more than halfway through our extended circuit breaker lockdown (32/55). Partial opening up is likely to be the way from here. If we see a surge in cases again, we will have to take 2 steps back and observe again. This could last a while as we cautiously move ahead until a vaccine is found.

Meanwhile, like a horror show that we all know how the ending will be, we can see a high probability of the 2nd wave hitting many areas very soon, especially in America. I really salute the front line staff who are still bravely fighting the war with no ending in sight yet. For the Covidiots who are selfishly fighting for their me first “freedom”, I say we should ship all of them to a remote island where they are free to practise all their 2nd amendment rights there.