Category: Uncategorized

The week started off with a bang, literally.

Early Monday morning, news flashes started appearing that the Myanmar military had taken the ruling members into custody and have placed them under house arrest. This was the same day where the new parliament was supposed to be sworn into power after NLD’s landslide victory in last Nov’s general elections.

As an aside, I have come to know Myanmar better over the last 7 years since I started to visit the country for work in 2014. My old private equity company had started a joint venture with a local business group to build a new microfinance firm from the ground up.

The country had just started to open up after having closed itself to the rest of the world for 50+ years after the last military coup in 1962. Not much was known about the country for many years until it opened up to prepare for the first general elections in Nov 2015. Some said that the junta was forced to open up as the US had threatened to freeze all their funds that were held in S’pore if they do not hold democratic elections.

My relationship with the country continued into 2016 as I visited them a few times and marvelled at how fast the country was growing and modernizing in the first few years. It was a rapid catch up to the modern age as the people realized how big the outside world has become and they had their first taste of consumerism.

I remember watching the late Anthony Bourdain’s first season and episode 1 of Parts Unknown which was about Myanmar. They were so closed to the outside world that most were basically scrapping through used vehicle parts imported from neighbouring countries to adapt to their automobile needs. Food was scarce and most were living from hand to mouth. A merry-go-round in Yangon shocked Anthony as it had no engine but was kick-started by a few men pulling the frame manually to create the momentum to make it go around… I should watch the episode again to see how much things have changed since then.

Intro to Parts Unknown S01E01 Myanmar: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RrSULRKOUdU

The full episode: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2L8ZY0-E4Ho

I left the company in Apr 2016 and lost touch with the country for a while, until Jan 2018 where I joined an ex-colleague who had become the CEO of a local MFI to become a Treasury consultant. It was focused on providing loans to farmers and I had to travel to Yangon monthly. This helped me to develop a new and deeper understanding of the country.

I remember my first trip there around 2014/15. The beat-up old car that was supposed to pick me up at the airport broke down halfway to the office and I had to hail a cab instead. Traffic was super bad with jams along the old roads and multiple very old cars honking around us. There was limited hotels available then and the few that were offered charged almost USD300 per night. The standards were pretty bad for that price but foreigners were flooding the city as it started to open up again after 50 over years of self-isolation.

Cut to Jan 2018 until my last monthly trip there in Feb 2020. Over the more than 20+ trips there where I spent a few days in Yangon every month, I saw first hand the transformation of the country as it modernizes and caught up with the modern world. Everyone now has a mobile phone and internet access to most means a Facebook account. I had developed strong relationships with the people of the senior team and also had numerous lovely meals in the new restaurants popping up all over the city while observing the changing landscape of the country.

It is a lovely place with very kind people who were getting used to no more secret police watching over your shoulders nor having to think about where your next meal is going to come from, to a generation of people hungry to succeed in life. Most of the over 50s were unable or were too late to make the transition but those below 50 were all trying to make up for the lost time, career-wise. Probably motivated by the Lady leader, I see around me mainly women that were striving to get more education, learn to communicate in English. They were generally more hungry to learn than the local men.

Alas, this week the world came crashing down for the country when the military coup happened. It was a reality check for everyone who thought that this possibility was too remote after 2 democratic elections. The main NLD party had just won a landslide victory in Nov and now the military had done a Trump on the whole country.

There were seething tensions and undercurrents between the NLD leadership and the junta for a while before it exploded to the surface on Monday. The military was disappointed that its claims of voter fraud were not seriously looked into. That was the main reason given.

But I suspect that they and the business community were unhappy with the progress of the country under NLD to date. It was like one step forward and 2 steps back approach for the last 5 years. The NLD’s senior management was mainly staffed with people who were absolutely loyal to the Lady and had been jailed together with her previously. There were hardly any qualified technocrats in the parliament who can help drive the huge potential which Myanmar had to offer. It was unlike the time just before the military handed power over to the NLD in 2015. During that time, there were swift reforms and changes made by technocrats appointed by the military to prepare the country to open up to the world.

All the telecommunication providers were told to shut down on Monday for half a day and it was radio silence throughout the country during the coup. Things became better on day 2 as bank ATMs started to operate. But the tension is rising into the weekend and mobiles went silent again yesterday. The situation is still evolving and I feel for the people of Myanmar as they go through this uncertain period in the midst of the COVID19 pandemic.

On the personal front, I strongly believe that when a door closes behind you, many other doors will open in front of you. The retail business that I was planning to start late last year did not happen for various reasons. I did my 2021 New Year Resolutions and wondering what I should be doing for the rest of the year, given that the virus and vaccination process will probably extend into the rest of the year and that we will likely be confined to our countries for a little longer. I received good news in Jan that I was accepted to the IBM AI (Artificial Intelligence) course to become a full time student. This heavily subsidized course by the government will occupy me for the next 6 months and even provide me with a student allowance while I study.

https://webibmcourse.mybluemix.net/SGUnitedProgramme

The Chinese New Year CNY period is about to begin. Lotsa reunion dinners and eating to start, albeit in a more subdued fashion with many restrictions, given the virus situation. We should count our blessings and be glad that we have things under better control than most of the other countries in the world. What we can do now is more than what a lot of other people outside S’pore can safely do as the rush is on to get the vaccines out to all to achieve herd immunity.

It has already been a year into the pandemic. Mother Gaia is healing itself, people are living a healthy lifestyle with no late nights and partying as all nightlife is closed. Everyone should emerge from this episode stronger than before and not take simple things in our lives for granted.

What an epic week it has been, as much was written about a particular war that was taking place in cyberspace where billions of $$ were being wagered by 2 opposing teams.

David took on Goliath and slugged it out on the Robinhood trading platform via WallStreetBets sub-Reddit. The difference cannot be more extreme. The “ants” of numerous retail investors versus the armies of hedge funds with deep pockets fought a daily battle over one stock: GameStop got Game Stonk’ed.

Anger is now the new investment emotion taking over the traditional Greed and Fear drivers. A revolution has been set up. Objective: Sweet revenge against the evil financial empire that was responsible for the 2008 GFC where no evil bankers were punished with jail time and all were bailed out by the central banks.

It was the rise of Robinhood traders in these COVID19 times. Thanks to technology and the novel way of providing free trades to the retail sector, many that were stuck at home with much time to kill turned their laser focus attention to a single cause – to punish the fat cats who have been taking the common people for a ride for so many years.

The GameStop fight was also a very smart trading strategy that took a few months to be developed before all the stars started to align themselves to trigger the great big war this week. https://www.wsj.com/articles/keith-gill-drove-the-gamestop-reddit-mania-he-talked-to-the-journal-11611931696

Short only hedge funds have been the villains of the markets that even Elon Musk hated. He eventually crushed the Tesla shorts totally. Such funds tend to crowd around the same ideas to muscle into a company, pressuring them to their knees in the name of corporate activism. In the process, they make tons of money.

Some like Muddy Waters call out the frauds – Chinese names which were doing fanciful financial accounting. Others shorted the investment banks in the 2008 GFC and brought down Bear Stearns, Lehman and Merrill Lynch. But is it right to create short positions that are more than 5 times of the available stock? It sets a ripe situation to engineer a short squeeze, which was what the Robinhood masses did to the funds with great success.

While hedge funds do serve a function to make the market more efficient, there are others that do questionable actions to gang up against a company. They get into grey areas like insider trading info in order to get a successful kill. When caught, they are handed a big fine which they can easily afford, which will get them off the hook. Example: Steve Cohen and the $1.8 billion fine which inspired the Axel Rod character in the TV series Billions. Incidentally, these same names are also indirectly involved in the current GameStop mega battle too.

The politicians have also jumped onto the bandwagon when the platforms started to limit the buying behaviours of the Robinhood retail players, who cried murder and accusation of double standards. The stock had already shot up like a rocket into the stratosphere, mortally wounding hedge funds like Melvin Capital. The Robinhood CEO explained that it was a necessary action as the increased volatility and more buying actions meant that they had to borrow and stump up much more collateral to post in the exchanges. Hence the justification to slow down the buying frenzy.

And into the week, the GameStop stock price jumped one day to fall the next before the retail hordes came back again to pump the price back up. This was like a DOTA game where winning was everything and making lotsa money the by-product. It was the conviction and the belief in the cause that mattered most. The Battle Royale was fought in real-time and both sides refused to blink while the GameStop senior management was sidelined, unable to do anything and looking totally helpless as things got out of control.

We all know how this is going to end though. If we follow the fundamentals of the company, it will not in its wildest dreams, be able to fulfil the current price valuation. In the long term, it is likely to collapse in price. But in the short term, it seems like newer and higher price records will be broken as the hedge funds continue to be pushed out of their short positions.

Like BLM, the masses are saying that they have enough of being ripped off by Wall Street and that it is time to fight back. The anger and a newfound ability that each and every individual’s action can collectively tip the iceberg into their favour is a powerful adrenaline rush for them. Using short-dated options and various leverage methods, their small capital can be amplified multiple folds to combat against the might of the giant hedge funds. The rallying cry via memes: to hold the ground and be a diamond rocket. To never sell but to buy more. It becomes a cultish act for the greater good, profit be damned. Will many be eventually burned by being the last to hold the hot potato when the avalanche of orders to exit happens?

This evolving epic war will continue into next week and no one can foresee the final outcome. I see a new pattern of more such similar fights to come in the future. The masses have been empowered and they are not going to take any more shit from the elites. If they see a noble cause worth defending, they will rally the troops and create an Avengers response to the Thanos hordes. Game on and suit up, people!!!

This week started with trepidation as US headed into the inauguration on Wed, 20 Jan.

After what happened on 06 Jan with the storming of the Capitol and more than 25,000 troops stationed there ahead of the swearing-in ceremony, there was a real fear that something bad would happen on the actual day. Would there be a final QAnon storm that will descent on DC? Will some crazy nut try to pull a violent stunt on the newly elected leader? These were very immediate concerns which the world was watching intently because of the 06 Jan fiasco by the security team.

Thankfully, nothing happened on 20 Jan and we had a short and abbreviated ceremony which signal a return to normalcy after 4 years of the orange menace. Boring and predictable is good. There was a nice 1 hour of inauguration events with singers, actors speeches and fireworks.

Biden gave a short speech and got down to work immediately to sign multiple presidential executive orders to correct the mess made by the previous team and to tackle the urgent issues on hand, like the pandemic. The uncoordinated approach to the vaccine rollout was also addressed.

I thought Obama had his hands full in 2008 when he had to take over the financial crisis but Biden’s tasks now are even more onerous – pandemic, climate change and a weakening economy. Leadership that was so sorely lacking over the past months had created a headless chicken administration where no one was home and the supreme leader was out playing golf.

It is a nice breath of fresh air to see Biden taking control and providing a top-down direction to a nation that is divided with hate and confusion. At the oath-taking for 1,000 political appointees, something he said caught my attention. “I’m not joking when I say this: If you ever work with me and I hear you treat another colleague with disrespect, talk down to someone, I will fire you on the spot. No ifs, ands or buts.”.

That common sense of human decency that was totally missing from the last administration is finally returning. Their past actions constantly shocked us as people are humiliated and then thrown under the bus while his supporters cheered him on. We watched from outside America and wonder if it was the demise of American world leadership and that western democracy was crumbling. The hypocrisy was so rich it was vomit-inducing.

Biden immediately got down to work and within the last 2.5 workdays, he probably did more work than what the orange one accomplished in a long time. A lot of the toxic measures were also reversed. Building a wall and separating children from families is no more. Cruel actions for the sake of doing it should stop now. Science should triumph over falsehoods and lies. Even Fauci commented that it is so good to rely on scientific facts and speak the truth now. That if he doesn’t have the answer, he can say so honestly instead of trying to twist the truth to suit a political agenda.

Hopefully, the GOP comes around to non-partisan politics and push through an agenda that benefits all. But bad habits are hard to kick and Mitt is into his games again, trying to delay the process even though their house majority is no more. As more evidence emerges from the 06 Jan riots, I am sure the case for impeachment will become stronger.

There is so much to do now and so little time left. The urgency is very real as another 100,000 more in the US may die from the virus, according to projections. The world is not out of the woods yet. New waves have started and the newer strains are being detected everywhere, even as travelling had been restrictive. Asian countries including China are seeing new lockdowns as the virus creeps into the population again.

To date, about 56 million in the world have taken the vaccines so far. Some deaths have occurred for the older folks who took it. Some people are still fearful of possible side effects. But between prevention of death and getting long Covid, isn’t it better to just take the vaccine when your turn comes?

Vaccination is now being administered for the older generation and front line troops who are battling the virus in hospitality/service industries. My age groups turn should be coming soon. I have no hesitation about taking it. A return to normalcy is only possible with the vaccine and herd immunity. Future overseas travel will depend on if you have had the vaccine. No more 14 days quarantine.

The issues on hand now are as follows… We have no idea how long the vaccine can last and protect us. Is it 3, 6 or more months? Before we get vaccine herd immunity, will the people who took the first batch of the vaccine shots still be immune or do they need to take it again? There is also insufficient studies on asymptomatic cases. Can they still pass the virus to others and for how long? Newer waves are also being detected due to old infections and new virus mutations.

I strongly feel that we can see light at the end of the dark tunnel now. But the question is how far are we away from the finishing line? 6 months? 12 more months? There is still no certainty at the moment. But at least there is renewed hope that the worst is behind us, that things should get better from here, that 2021 would be so much brighter than 2020. Keeping my fingers crossed.

Woke (/ˈwoʊk/ WOHK) is a political term that originated in the United States, and it refers to a perceived awareness of issues that concern social justice and racial justice. The object of attention is then Cancelled, silenced online by the masses.

It finally happened. The social media took away the only superpower of the orange moron. Talking shit on Twitter to his millions of ardent supporters and using it as a bully pulpit as the most powerful person in the world for the last 4 years is no more.

Day in and day out, he has hoarded the news media with newer and newer lows on how not to act presidential, acknowledging that he was untouchable. His loyal acolytes blindly follow him. They provided him with a protective shield by threatening any opposition voices with bodily harm even as the lies become more ridiculous. Grown men reduced to snivelling idiots who defend his every action as they breath and believe his alternative reality, calling everything else that is against them fake news. We saw a lot of these hardcore fans last week at the Capitol riot.

Twitter, Facebook, Youtube, Snapchat and even Google started to shut down his bull horn platforms within a week after the 06 Jan Capitol riots. They have deemed that he is too dangerous to allow to continue even as he has only days left to leave the office on 20 Jan. Corporate sponsors avoided and cancelled their links with him so fast as if they just came into contact with a pariah. He tried to use official White House social media sources as an alternative and was shut down immediately too.

And then he was silenced… His supporters lost their communication channel with their great leader. There was eerie quiet from a man that was muted by the tech companies overnight. His only superpower was taken away from him, like taking the favourite toy from a naughty toddler.

Are the supporters still going ahead with new violent acts into the 20 Jan inauguration event or will they become headless chickens that will fade into the darkness? Riots in all 50 states and threats to the members of parliament are still possible as the crazies are now being rounded up by the FBI after the fiasco at the Capitol. We see so many seemingly normal people and ex-military personnel being sucked into the QAnon conspiracy rabbit hole. Driven by hate and anger, fueled by more lies, no one knows what they are capable of doing with the ammunition they have accumulated.

It feels so surreal this week when we suddenly had no new tweets from the orange moron anymore. The only video of him to condemn the violence he had egged on was also not widely broadcast in most news network. And he still refuses to acknowledge that he lost the elections, continuing to perpetuate the “Stop the Steal” conspiracy to rally his troops to remain angry and frustrated with their government.

We have returned to the days where every other news is not about him or linked to him anymore. It felt unusual and disquieting to return to a normal time where general news was about more important things that matter, like the virus situation. America is not out of the woods yet. With a worsening pandemic situation caused by inaction and made worse by false conspiracy theories and politicized, Biden has a tough road ahead. Not only has he got much work ahead, but he has to also be wary of the mess he is left with and the need to clean it up. Personal safety and those within the Capitol is now also an important consideration as there are enemies within them who had facilitated the riots by the protestors.

Based on new information, it could have been an inside job where some senators may have provided the organizers with a personal tour of the Capitol for a recce mission prior to 06 Jan. Some Democrats like AOC were rightfully fearful for their lives on what the protestors had planned to do if they were successful in locating and capturing their targets.

This is what America has descended to now. No better than a third world country with violent insurrections and no will to control a pandemic while everything is being politicized for political gain. The irony is so rich as they continue to try to tell other countries what to do. “Do as I say, not as what I do”.

Their comments on supporting the 2019 HK rioters now look so laughable as it is exactly the opposite of what is happening to their Capitol now. The moral authority to lead the world has been badly wounded by the orange menace. The double standards they apply – the rest of the world has seen through them, thanks to the current administration. Using the might of the whole government to bully a corporation using a motherhood statement like state security without any concrete proof is so pathetic. Tiktok videos can do that? What about Youtube, Facebook, Snapchat and Instagram doing it to the rest of the world then?

The American social media platforms have suddenly woken up to the dangers they themselves pose into the new year. They had been ignoring the same threats which had been happening for years in many other countries where social media ecosystems have been used to push false narratives on citizens for political gain. We see that happening in Myanmar, India and the Philippines all the time and yet they did nothing. It’s all so hypocritical. And now the all-out push to cripple China’s tech advancement. Zero coherent strategies to punish, while executing punitive measures which don’t really make any sense at all.

It is only 2 weeks into 2021 and we have already seen so many things happening. It will shape the rest of the year as we figure out how we can navigate the pandemic. Vaccines are not a cure-all strategy. They do not last forever (3 months?) and without sufficient data, no one knows if asymptomatic cases can still spread the virus. More mutated versions also make it more complicated to address long term. Getting herd immunity is the best bet now but by the time we get there, which could be many months, will the people who had the shots early in the cycle still have the COVID19 immunity?

As we muddle through the rest of the year with 50 more weeks to go, I believe that it cannot get any worse than annus horribilis 2020. The coordination with the rest of the world should improve with the Biden administration, barring any other stupid actions form the Covidiot crowds. Stay safe and healthy my friends!

And the superpowers of the orange moron has finally been removed. Like a spoilt kid that was given too many liberties by the parents/enablers for the last 4 years, they have finally had enough of the “enfant terrible”.

Twitter, Facebook, Google and the rest of the social media platforms have finally permanently banned him from their platforms as they deemed that he is too dangerous for the public, even though he has less than 12 days left in the office. Talks of the 25th amendment to remove an existing president or a new impeachment run rampant online now. It is too little too late.

Talking about double standards… The US (via Pompeo) had protested on the recent arrest of HK protestors just before their Capitol house was stormed this week. The irony is so rich I really don’t know where to start. The hypocrisy and the “Do as I say, not as I do” attitude is so vomit-inducing. Social media platforms like Facebook had already done the same around the world – in Myanmar, India and the Philippines to kill and destroy opposition dissent via lies and falsehood for years. And yet they did nothing in the name of free speech. Now the rooster has come home to shit on the capital of western democracy.

US democracy had almost died this week and like a pendulum, it is likely to swing from the right to the left now. It is a sad day to see all his enablers now crying wolf and saying enough is enough, I told you so… Political means to an end overrode common sense and human decency for too long and should not go unpunished. He has already thrown all the protestors under the bus within 24 hours, after having incited and encouraged them to violence for weeks, right up to the morning itself into the rally to fire up the troops to march to the Capitol. Even the National Guards were prevented from supporting the Washington DC police leading up to 06 Jan by the orange one.

With the mass arrests that will happen soon, will the supporters eventually wake up to the biggest hoax they have been lied to? Fox tries to blame everything on suspected Antifa troops hiding in the crowds. Really? You have all of the protestors that are easily identifiable as they refused to wear masks in a pandemic. It is now up to the police to follow the trail, identify and arrest them. It reminded me of the S’pore Serangoon riots a few years ago where video evidence was used against the rioters, to eventually charges them with the full weight of the law. Let’s hope America develops a spine and grow a pair of balls now.

And now to my 2021 New Year Resolutions which I have been thinking about for the last week since I reviewed and rated my 2020 ones 7 days ago. It is more of the same but with some fine-tuning as I wanted more focus on certain areas rather than have some generic motherhood statements. Here goes:

(1) To read 15 books

It is the same as last year though. I only managed to read 11.5 in 2020 and I envy a friend that had read 40. With free, popular and current ebooks easily available to borrow from the National Library, I should not have much excuse to not want to set aside at least an hour every night to do some reading, rather than to watch more TikTok videos. There are also a few much thicker books that are greater than 500 pages which I want to attack, so maybe 15 is a reasonable number, for now.

(2) Get a new consulting project

This was achieved last year by luck as the S’pore consultancy firm gave me a project to complete in 3 months. I hope to get more from them this year and am also currently working on another new Myanmar role which could hopefully crystalize by end of Q1. My retail business venture that was heavily planned in Q4 is now put on hold for the moment. So I should have more time in 2021 to do more MOOC online learning or sign up for Skillsfuture courses.

(3) Upgrade my video editing skills

I have cheated on this for the last 20 years by using the Muvee AutoProducer software to edit my family videos. With just a click of a few buttons, I could easily create MTVs of events. Perhaps it is time for me to upskill and learn what is new out there to make better videos. If I managed to make my drone capture some good aerial videos, I would need a better way to make more professional stuff like what I normally see from astounding youtube videos nowadays. If they can do it, I should be able too.

(4) Learn a new programming language

Back to my junior college computer science roots again, I would like to bring myself up to speed on what is available in the market. I have not decided on what this will be yet. It could be Python, SQL, Linux or something relevant. I also need to know what the common infrastructure tools available are like, for example, GitHub and off the shelf software products.

(5) Learn to create an online store

With the retail business idea, we had wanted to pivot to an online store first, instead of having a physical one. Now that the business is on hold, that should not stop me from learning how to develop one. Drop Shipping is the buzz word for creating an online store without inventory while automating most of the processes to close transactions between buyers and sellers seamlessly. The Canadian company Shopify is the most successful platform for hosting online dropshipping stores. I want to learn how to do this.

(6) Continue to stay happy and healthy

After a year like 2020, this becomes even more relevant and crucial to remain sane and weather through 2021. My mental wellbeing is tied to my health. I managed to loss 3 kg of weight and maintain my lighter self into the end of the year. My health app says that my ideal weight should be 64kg. So can I reduce it further? No harm trying by exercising more and eating healthily. Always being focused on this makes life more bearable and easy to follow.

The first week of 2021 has started with a bang, only 51 more weeks to go. It should look brighter than last year and with fewer uncertainties. With all humans putting their minds to common goals, we will be able to overcome. Just don’t hold your breath though…

And yes, we crossed into the new year and survived a horrible 2020 which we will all remember for years to come. The great vaccination exercise has started as humankind races to stop the virus while winter is coming. What lies ahead as we enter into the first week of the brand new year?

Today is 02 Jan and it has been raining cats and dogs non-stop for the last 48 hours since we entered into the new year. Everyone has been trying to celebrate the traditional holiday festive period in a subdued way, wary of the ongoing virus still surging in the Western world.

As each country’s vaccination program is being kick-started slowly, we will surely see it accelerate over the next few months. It is a race against time as the virus had mutated into a more contagious strain in the UK. Cases are also reaching record highs in many developed countries. As more vaccines get approved and come online, getting into a herd immunity situation is looking to be more likely now.

The problem at hand is on the execution of this program and convincing everyone to take it. Choosing between life/normalcy and death: surely this is a no-brainer?? The vaccine will not change your DNA or cause you to become a zombie. Haven’t we been taking vaccines since we were born?? Influenza, flu shots etc…

Meanwhile, America is set for an explosive week ahead, courtesy of the orange one. He is probably doing his last-ditch effort to overturn the elections. Telling his Proud Boys supporters to gather for a 06 Jan fireworks gathering, right after the Georgia elections. The way he is sabotaging GOP every day, how can the 2 Republican candidates win? But then again, this is America we are talking about. They prefer a lousy opposition rather than a one-party rule. Having a one-party majority is a no-no for them. But everyone seems to have forgotten that GOP did control the House, Senate and White House in 2016 though…

This may not be the last we will see of the chaos as we head into the 20 Jan inauguration. More wacky pardons will be issued and his survival strategy is to deny Biden and still make himself relevant after leaving office. This will give him a perceived protective shield against the multiple legal lawsuits that will rain on him once the presidential powers are taken away from him. It is crazy days ahead!

Now is the time to set my new year resolutions again. I have been doing this on my blog for the last few years and it has been effective to help me stay focused for the next 12 months. By also declaring them so publicly here for all to see, it also forces me to make action plans in order to achieve the goals.

Before I state my new 2021 New Year Resolutions next week, perhaps it will be good for me to reflect on my 2020 ones first. I will then have a week to chew over them and set new ones for the rest of the 51 weeks. I will now look at each of the 8 resolutions I had set for myself in Jan 2020 and do a post mortem on them, to see whether I had been able to accomplish them.

(1) Read 15 books

I managed to only complete 11.5 books, which is less than 1 per month. The best book I read this year was the one on Elon Musk. I should have read this earlier to understand the genius behind the madness. I would then have held Tesla as a long term investment and not just trade it away. There were also a few books on financial matters and AI which I reread again to better appreciate the contents.

(2) Do my family videos

Completed. I was a bit behind by a few years and managed to complete editing them, right up to the end 2019 period. Had to do all of them in MPEG4 format as the auto video editor Muvee does not support MPEG2 anymore.

(3) Do 10 courses

This was a big fail for me. I tried to start a few online MOOC courses which I did not complete for various reasons (ie. laziness). COVID19 should have been a strong push for me to do so during the lockdown periods. Totally no excuse not to do so.

(4) Fly my DJI drone.

Another big fail for me. It was the birthday present I requested for 2 years ago. Flew it less than 5 times and was discouraged each time when the drone video output was less than satisfactory. Coupled with the short flight time of 21 minutes for each required battery change, it was off-putting for me. I simply lost interest in this hobby.

(5) Have more consultancy jobs

After my Deloitte/Grab 3 months project late last year and my Myanmar ALCO role since 2018, I thought that I was ready to pivot to more consultancy projects in 2020. As luck would have it, the founder of the local consultancy group that I had joined decided to jumpstart his company aggressively this year. He managed to acquire a project with a government board which required expertise than I had. It was a 3 months work to help set up a certification module for the financial sector from Jun to Aug period. Towards the end of 2020, I am in the midst of a discussion with 2 other partners for a new consultancy project with the parent holding company of the Myanmar microfinance company I have been working on for the last 3 years. Hopefully, it will develop into a live project in 2021.

(6) Start a new hobby

Nada. Zip. Big fail. Watching too much YouTube videos does not qualify as a new hobby. It should have been easy to do this one since we had to be confined in the house due to the virus. Interestingly, Baking was one of the top new hobbies for most in 2020.

(7) Restructure my portfolio

I would give myself a B+ on this. I could have done better though. It was a year of surprises where the window of opportunity came in Mar as markets crashed when the realization of the virus impact slammed us in the face. I got investment bullets prepared, ready to shoot at least 2 rounds when levels were reached. I chickened out after the first bullet was shot as the meltdown unfolded. It was a battle Royale between COVID19 and the central banks. Would liquidity or the virus win? With too much liquidity chasing too few assets and too many Robinhood traders emerging, the K recovery pushed tech stocks to the moon. Fiat currencies were cheapened by the uncontrolled printing machines of the lender of last resort in a desperate attempt to salvage the economies ravaged by the virus.

I managed to restructure my portfolio accordingly in a more active manner by dumping those that I don’t like and getting into more promising ones along the way. My investments recovered and exceeded my expectations. I could have done better though but it would have taken more aggressive actions which I may not have been prepared to take.

(8) Staying happy and healthy

Surprisingly, due to the Mar-Jun lockdown, I managed to lose 3 kg of fat. I did not weigh myself during that period and started a daily regime of a run in the morning of the same route to keep sane. The 4 weeks in the UK staying mostly alone in the 2 apartments resulted in more runs via the scenic Oxford countryside and more self-awareness. That prepared me for the 2 weeks of hotel lockup when I returned to S’pore in Oct. In 2020, I learnt not to take things for granted and to enjoy/count my blessings every day. Looking forward to many small happiness every day and to smell the roses while the whole world changes daily, the virus impact notwithstanding.

Overall, my 2020 Resolution achievement grade result looks like a B- to a C+ handle. Time now to contemplate my 2020 resolution achievements as the new year lies ahead and plan for new ones into 2021. Every soul on earth have had a life changing year where the impossible had happened. It makes one rethink our priorities and value the moments past as we look to the new normal. We cherish the simple moments and have a greater appreciation of simple pleasures like quality family time. 2021 should be an easier year with the rollout of the vaccines as we can see some light at the end of the tunnel now.

I guess there is a method to the madness. With the holiday season upon us, the disruptor in chief is looking to wreak havoc into the last 30 days of his hold on power. Within the last few days before Christmas, he had managed to unleash so much chaos before rushing back to his Margo Largo hideout for the long holiday weekend.

Firstly, he refused to sign the Defense Spending Act on some unrelated reasoning and because he thinks they will change the names of some military bases. Then he threw the whole COVID19 relief package under the bus by insisting that the amount be raised to 2K. The missing in action president who had been busy playing golf and ignoring the pandemic for months has not lifted a finger to participate in the by-partisan negotiations to finalize the latest bill to provide relief to Americans before the end of the year.

Yet he now holds the whole process hostage as he drops a bomb on everyone. It is human cruelty at its best, to inflict pain at the worst moment to the most vulnerable. It seems that the timing of these announcements are not a coincidence as the senate and house will have 2 weeks to try to change or veto his decision. This ties perfectly into the Georgia elections in early Jan which will determine the fate of the senate for the 2 contested positions, whether it will go to the GOP majority or if the Democrats will win it.

By holding GOP hostage to the above, he will be able to command absolute loyalty from the party for him to give it a last shot to overturn the “illegal” election results. A memo had already been issued to the White House staff to stay on and to retract an earlier one that asked them to vacate the premises by 05 Jan to prepare for the inauguration of the new administration on 20 Jan.

He wants GOP to know who is the boss and see how badly they want to keep the senate. With little time left in power, he is making the most of his last days in a final push to stay in power, let the legal systems be damned. The long shot to overturn the results of the elections is still important because he is fighting for his personal survival.

The lawsuits will come for him swiftly and furiously the moment he leaves office. There are so many pending cases on his financial dealings and questionable business actions that will be probed after 20 Jan. His family affairs and tax evasion practices are also up for review plus money links to the Russians via Deutsche Bank will be exposed. His financial survival is at stake even as he raised more than $200+ million from supporters to fight the supposedly rigged elections.

The next masterful stroke is to begin his presidential pardons and issue them like candy to his cronies in earnest. Within the 2 days before Christmas, over 40+ have been issued. More than 80% can be linked to him for a personal or political reason. Criminals and murderers are being pardoned. Most have not even shown remorse or attempted to atone for their previous actions yet. A commentator did mention though that if they accepted the presidential pardons, then there could be an admission of guilt which could result in new charges to be brought to them.

The pardons seem to be a prelude to many more in the pipeline for him to execute and stretch the grey line even further. He probably has hundreds more to issue in the upcoming remaining days in office. Family members could be next. But what is there to pardon if they did not commit any crimes at the moment? Can they be pardoned for future crimes??? A free get out of jail card to be used when needed after Jan 2020?

Some even speculated that he plans to pardon himself to get immunity for life when he leaves office. If that is not possible, then could he step down suddenly on 19 Jan and get Pence to pardon him instead? He had been dangling the pardon card for years to buy loyalty. Now, it is the execution plan in play.

The pandemic rages on and no one is at home to watch the fire burning down the house. Travel for Christmas and New Year has now reached all-time highs for the year as the UK just announced a new and more contagious strain of the virus. This is a perfect storm that is looking to explode in all our faces even as the vaccines are being rushed out. A real mother of all shit shows is developing nicely along.

On the personal front, we are glad that my older son is back home and completed his SHN in a S’pore hotel on Monday. He had been in the UK for almost 3 months for his first term at Oxford as the COVID19 situation continues to deteriorate further. A new Tier 4 rating has just been created to plan for the worst. Infection rates are moving higher as the new strain spreads. Being home in S’pore is perhaps the safest bet for him for now.

The new Wonder Woman 1984 movie had started and we caught it during mid-week at the cinema. It was nice to be able to have a small semblance of the normalcy of watching a show on the big screen, just like the old normal again. The movie was delayed by more than a year already. New movies like this one will be streaming on various platforms like Netflix into 2021 as there is a huge build-up of a backlog of shows to be released.

As we start to celebrate the end of a terrible year that happens once in 100 years and start to welcome an uncertain 2021, many unknowns are still up in the air. While I am more optimistic that there is light at the end of the tunnel, I am not sure if the finishing line is near or there are many more months ahead.

Herd immunity via the vaccines will take months to achieve, assuming that everyone is cooperative and wants to take them. Politics, however crazy they become, will take care of itself. America is on a decline while Asia and China will rise. Brexit will be terrible for the UK eventually. Liquidity will continue to flood the markets as fiat currencies lose their value as central banks print like there is no tomorrow.

Before I start, I like to wish everybody a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year ahead. May 2021 hold more joy and brightness than this year, which we all want to forget.

Businesses are all trying to wind down now in the face of a crazy and difficult year, where everything but the kitchen sink was thrown at you. A 1 in a 100 years event where there is no reaction template to consult with. A go as you learn situation that affects just about every single human being on earth.

Who would have thought that if someone had told me a year ago that the whole world would stop functioning for months because of an invisible enemy, I would have said that he was insane? The tables have been turned upside down as we fall into a new normal that evolves day by day.

Masks and toilet paper became valuable commodities overnight. The fear of death was very real for everyone in the world. SARS taught Asia to be better prepared but yet the scale of the pandemic astounded all of us. One could not have imagined that we needed to press the pause button on the whole world to fight COVID19. Lockdowns became common buzz words and getting used to being trapped at home for months was the norm.

It was a long spring, summer and autumn, fraught with uncertainties every week. I started ending my blog titles in terms of week counts to refer to the virus impact event, starting from where I had perceived to be the start. Today, we are in week 42. It is my personal diary of COVID19 which I wanted to have a record of events to look back to in the future, to reflect upon the difficult year where time stood still. It is also memorable that I experienced what prison was\ like as I was trapped in a hotel room for 14 nights, as part of a strict quarantine rule for returning to S’pore from the UK in mid-Oct.

There are many firsts in terms of experience for all. Not being able to see love ones for months, being stranded at home within the country and common activities like travelling overseas stopped completely.

Multiple businesses that thrived in 2019 died via a thousand paper cuts as oxygen was sucked away from under their feet. All central banks mounted huge relief packages aka money printing as if there is no tomorrow, to try to prevent their economies from collapsing. And yet the stock markets roared ahead to new highs after the disastrous meltdown in March that lasted all of one month. There was too much liquidity chasing too few assets. Those investors that are brave enough to catch trends like working from home technology made good money.

QR codes and cashless payment adoption accelerated. Contact tracing via apps (damn the privacy) became compulsory. The world had to be nimble and adapt fast to each challenge. Those countries that were slow or refuse to acknowledge them were punished hard by the virus. The weakness of each country’s infrastructure was exposed to all to see. Even the proactive ones were savaged by 2nd and 3rd waves as the year wore on. No one was spared.

Where do we go from here now? Winter is approaching and the western world seems ill-prepared to handle the new surge in cases to historical highs. It is like March all over again. With more people staying indoors and celebrating the year-end holidays, Jan 2021 does seem to look bleak. Telling everyone not to gather in big groups for the holidays look like an impossible task as more Americans are determined to travel home for the Christmas dinner after such a shitty year.

Draconian rules have been applied in Asia and the rest of the world is starting to slowly realize that it works to combat the virus. The UK had to open and shut so many times that I have lost count. I was there for a month and personally witnessed the yo-yo decision making which made things worse. Brexit discussions going nowhere also did not help.

The silver lining in all these depressing news is the vaccine progress. Now that Moderna is approved by FDA, we have 2 main contenders (Pfizer being the first) being slowly rolled out all over the world. It still takes time and S’pore only gets them by end Dec. With 2 injections required about 3 to 4 weeks apart, it is a logistical nightmare to aim to achieve herd immunity via vaccines. We will need 60 to 80% of the population to have the shots. There will be more vaccines coming onstream soon but with varying degrees of effectiveness.

This is now another level of uncertainty which the world has not prepared for it before. The gapping problem will mean that things will get worse before it gets better. Can we afford to have another 3 to 6 months of seeing new peaks in cases? Or can we accelerate the vaccine rollout and make it compulsory for all?

A lot of people are adopting a wait and see attitude for the vaccine. You can afford to if you are safe in a country like S’pore. But if you are in a high-risk environment, then it is a choice between life and death. A no-brainer decision. Of course, everyone agrees that the front line workers should all get it asap. I would if I am exposed to the virus every day on my job. In order to save lives, one should protect oneself first. If the front line troops are decimated like in some countries earlier this year, then the whole community suffers eventually.

I can only foresee that more urgent relief liquidity is going to be provided by the central banks. This will create the same situation as in Apr where too much liquidity is chasing assets. Market prices will rise as the value of money decreases. Look at Bitcoin rising to new highs of 23.5k. There is a loss of confidence of fiat currencies, a bottomless pit where you get zero to negative rates for your idle funds in a bank.

I am actively seeking new technology and names that will continue to benefit from the current situation of accelerated tech adoption in a brave new world. Work from home is becoming like a drug where you may not want to go back to the office. People are beginning to question the efficiency of business travel.

There will be more breakthroughs as we get 5G and AI innovations in the Big Data and Cloud world. The future looks rosy but many landmines lay ahead. We need to tread carefully to avoid big blowups and be on our toes all the time.