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‘Tis a week of technology news overload for me as I participated in the annual S’pore Fintech Festival. The more I learn, the more amazed I am at where we are heading with new technology. More of that later.

The main topic of my blog today is my hypothesis about Covid. I see the end game in sight and all signs point to it as we near the 2nd anniversary of this deadly once in a hundred years pandemic that turned our lives upside down. There were so many twists and turns during these past 22 months that thinking about it gives me a headache. I had started labelling my weekly blogs since it began and today, we are at week 89…

The vaccines discovery were the fastest in human history and it was not by choice as it was for urgent implementation to prevent more deaths. The massive global rollout since last Dec came with variants hiccups and we are now into our 3rd booster shot. Masks, test kits and toilet paper were in short supply at various times during the numerous lockdowns. Contact tracing became Gestapo like with in-depth interrogations and jail time for guilty parties thrown into the chaos.

Political divides exposed the weaknesses of all countries while the evils of social media developed to the next level. Anti-vaxxers fought back and soon became the minority. Vaccine mandates continue to squeeze the last holdout unvaccinated group by threatening job terminations. The Universal Basic Income (UBI) concept originally expounded Andrew Yang had to be implemented as governments threw money at their citizens while economies collapsed and supply chains froze. Many have now decided to quit their jobs anyway after this virus episode as they question and prioritize their life choices. WFH (Work From Home) became the norm whenever possible.

Technology adaptation timelines were accelerated. Video calls provided a quantum leap in productivity and broadband survived the massive increase in data throughput. Contact tracing via an app and QR codes became a way of life while the world quickly learned to adopt China’s cashless way via epayments using the mobile.

The new normal means that the old ways of doing things pre-2020 will not likely return. Business travel? A big waste of time as clients may not want to see you and a video call will do just nicely. Short 30 mins to an hour calls are to the point and effective to bring the message across business contacts.

I digress from the main topic with my rant above. Why do I see the end in sight? It is the emergence of oral medication to conquer Covid. Merck came out with one a few weeks back and Pfizer just announced one with a success rate of 89% that amazed even themselves. They are basically pills that one will take once we realize that we have contracted the virus. They basically screw up the process where the virus tries to take over the body, handicaping it so that the full-blown effects of Covid19 is minimized to reduce hospitalization and death.

This will be the new Tamiflu of Covid. H1N1 was resolved when Tamiflu was introduced. It became just another common flu that could be treated with a medication course of Tamiflu. The S’pore authorities then bought millions of doses as a strategic reserve in case H1N1 surges back again. In a way, I believe that this might also be the turning point for Covid too.

There will be no need for vaccinations anymore if oral pills are a good and effective alternative to stopping the virus. Then we can stop pushing the vaccine mandates and the political divide will go away naturally. We can then get back to the world of living normally and not in fear of Covid. Children can go back to school without the need for masks.

Sounds workable and logical? I hope that it will happen, just as countries reopen and overseas travel is returning, but with some new protocols in place to lower the risk of imported virus exposure. I am generally an optimistic person that prefers to look at the bright side of things but these past months have been a severe test of all our mental health. Each and every human being on planet earth had been through a virus baptism of fire as we adapt to new ways of life constantly.

The main highlight of the week for me was the S’pore Fintech Festival. I have been attending this annual event since it started a few years ago. For this week, it was a virtual event where I could pick and choose the sessions I want to view at my own time and target. An interactive certification process was also included to allow participants to become more immersed in the event.

The overall theme was Web 3.0 and how it will affect everything that we will do in the future. Blockchain technology that leads to cryptocurrencies was a prominent topic throughout the 5 days event. Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) were also touted as the next big thing to tackle real-world problems. It made me smile inside as I just completed the IBM AI course and I believe that I am in the correct life long learning path of these new technologies.

While taking my dad to an annual checkup with the eye specialist on Thursday, I experienced on a first hand basis these technologies at work in the biggest public government hospital. The check-in was efficient and we were only allowed to do so just 15 minutes before the 1st appointment. Using his ID card, a printout showed him the 4 stations he had to visit in succession, one after the other.

There were 4 stations – one for the nurses to do some standard tests, then to the doctor for review. This was followed by the payment counter and then to the pharmacy for medication. All these took less than an hour to complete. TV screens at every station listed the queue status and prompted our assigned reference queue number when it was our turn. It was another lovely morning to spend time with my father, to accompany him to the appointment and then have lunch with my parents later.

Finally, on Friday afternoon, I had a video call with my new mentee to kickstart the annual NUSS Mentorship program. This will be my 4th year of participation with my 4th mentee. It is one of my ways to pay it forward as an alumni of the uni. It is also to get to know and understand a Gen Z youth to enable me to better connect with both my boys since they belong to this cohort. Hopefully, I can share my work life experiences with him and help him develop his career as he goes into the rat race soon after his final year in 2022.

My last overseas trip was to Oxford UK in Sep 2021 amidst the pandemic. It was to accompany my son to the beginning of his new school term. The trip was memorable for the many solo runs I had along the canals in order to minimize human contact. I also avoided London as the virus was spreading. Plus the 14 days hotel quarantine back in S’pore was a life-changing experience too.

We are almost a year into the vaccination drive and countries are reopening again. Not by choice as a zero Covid strategy is almost impossible. Too much money has been given out to support the sudden lockdowns and economies have to function again. We make do with living in an endemic world and try to bravely move on.

Newer oral drugs from Merck and Pfizer that aims to cut down severe Covid looks promising. They may be what Tamiflu is to H1N1 soon. With this and the vaccines, humankind will stand a better chance of fighting against the virus and what future variants can throw up. The 3rd booster shot is being rolled out and vaccine mandates for work are becoming a norm everywhere. The light at the end of this long tunnel appears to be approaching…

We will never return back to the old normal (pre-Dec’19) again. Technology has shown us that the new normal is possible and even more efficient. Zoom calls and QR quotes with cashless payments have opened up our eyes to a quantum leap in productivity. Who needs to spend hours and days on a business trip to meet a client who now probably don’t want to see you in person and prefer a video call instead? It is one productive meeting versus being stuck in traffic going to and from the airport and staying in crappy hotels.

The world did not collapse at the height of Covid. It evolved and transformed into a newer and stronger version of its old self. We humans adapt and WFH. Staying at home for days on end now seems perfectly normal. Being locked in your own little room, which used to be maddeningly frustrating, is now just another day in your life.

One positive thing that is trying to make a slow comeback? Going for overseas vacations. It started with my younger son. When the VTL (Vaccinated Travel Lanes) was announced, he was the first in the family to book a Germany/Amsterdam trip with a group of friends. Then older son decided to go for a school ski trip to France in Dec after his term ends. That left my wife and me with nowhere to go next month even though both boys will be back in S’pore by late Dec.

Then the most exciting thing happened this week. My wife suggested on Sunday to have a South Spain vacation. The weather is supposed to be cool and nice this time of the year. Another couple we were close to then decided to join us. Then yet another couple agreed. Soon there were 6 of us who were good to go. The flight bookings took the better half of earlier this week to finalize.

A Whatsapp chat group was formed and multiple discussions happened. I am glad to say that the itinerary by today had been firmed and a majority of our accommodations booked. Not bad for 5 days of group project work. It feels good to be alive again, planning for an overseas trip. The pandemic has done strange things to our way of life for the past 21 months…

We will land in Madrid in early Dec, stay there for 3 nights. Then it’s off to Seville for another 3 nights before we do one night each at Cordoba and Granada. Finally to Marbella for 4 nights and then to head back to Madrid for our Covid test before boarding the flights home.

Marriott Marbella was the dream vacation home destination sold to us in 2006 in Phuket when we were “conned” to buy the package. It cost us USD 26k. While we had had lots of great vacations over the years, the emergence of Airbnb in 2008 really destroyed this vacation concept. We would not have bought it if we knew that Airbnb would revolutionize the vacation industry. Who would have wanted to stay at the same place more than 2 times?

The promise of multiple Asian vacation homes did not materialize as they concentrated more on opening new ones in America and Europe. With a yearly maintenance fee of USD 1k and the introduction of a competing points system plus little choice of Asian locations, we eventually called it quits. With hardly any secondary market even for a premium vacation home package like ours, we finally decided to sell it back to the company for just USD 4k. It was a costly lesson for us to understand how the power of technology can be unleased into an inefficient industry.

Anyway, we had also converted some of the vacation weeks into Marriott Bonvoy points previously. We still have them till today and we could utilize them for this upcoming trip. The planning is made easier with interactive live chats and brainstorming sessions on Whatsapp. Consensus team decisions are made quickly as we move on to the next topic to resolve.

It has been a long time since we are able to plan for a big group vacation less than a month before the departure date. In the old days, it was virtually impossible. You can forget about getting the flights if it was less than 3 months to travel in a peak season like year-end. Times have changed with Covid. We had stared at the edge of the cliff and hopefully, we have moved away from it and turned around to face the new future. Hola!!

This week seemed to have passed by faster than the previous lockdown weeks for me. It was filled with one on one lunches and meeting people for drinks due to the limit of 2 to dine still being in force. PlusI had a false alarm on a job opportunity that came to nothing.

S’pore had its first day of more than 5k positive cases while covid deaths remained high by our standards. While it is worrying for us as a nation, it seems like the rest of the world is also getting ready for a tough winter ahead as the virus stubbornly refused to subside. We are faced with a new normal as we are soon arriving at the 2nd anniversary of Covid.

The fear of getting Covid must now be replaced by the fact that we need to embrace it. In an endemic, we are now told that everyone will probably contract it in the future as it is inevitable. The assurance is that it will be a mild and non-deadly experience as we have had the vaccine. Yet we are starting to see deaths for the older age group regardless of vaccination status with comorbidities reasoning as an excuse. The booster shot had also been rushed out as an additional measure.

Being just a few years away from hitting the 60s benchmark that defined the most vulnerable group, I am naturally concerned that we may be the borderline cases for our age group. I just had my booster shot yesterday (Moderna 0.25 ml for a change) the moment I received my SMS to book an appointment. Better be safe than sorry. Given that I already had 2 Pfizer mRNA shots already, what is so dramatic about getting another one?

The twist and turns that Covid had given all of us over the last 21 months are worthy of a K-drama thriller. Just when you thought it is safe to go out, it slaps you with another variant that comes where you least expects it. Non-stop action thriller that keeps you glued to your seat wondering if you are next.

Even as we are trained in 2020 to adopt a zero Covid strategy while thinking that the vaccines are the light at the end of the tunnel, the realization that it is not has impacted all our mental health tremendously. Covid fatigue is real and challenging for each and every one of us. Governments are at their wits end trying to be nimble with work in progress action plans.

We will probably look back on these times a year from now and declare that the solution was so obvious. Yet as we live through these times now, we are at a loss – where do we go from here? We just need to push on day by day, week by week and look to outlast the virus before it consumes us.

Personally, I have tried to return to some form of normal life within the constraints that we have. While being careful and taking precautions, I have had quite a number of nice one on one catchups this week with some old friends. The conversation is deeper and more substantiative as it is only 2 of us.

Human face to face interaction is necessary to maintain a level of saneness. We acknowledge that and make do with whatever we can. Some friends understandably withdraw into their cocooned homes for fear of bringing the virus home to their elderly loved ones. To each his own. After so many lockdowns, we have been conditioned to live our lives this way.

That is why is so difficult to come out of our rabbit holes now as cases and deaths are high. It takes a lot of courage to say “screw it, I want to live my life again”. The western world has already decided to do that, even as Asia slowly follows. China and HK are the last 2 holdouts to continue with their zero Covid strategies.

My friends and I reflect on our mid-life journey and try to figure out the world before us. What is coming next and how can we better prepare ourselves for the future post-Covid. I believe that reaching out to many people to discuss differing points of view is healthy and it prevents you from getting into the trap of having just a narrow perspective of your own echo chamber of reality. We tend to stick to our beliefs which may eventually shut out all other “alternate” views that may disprove our own. This is is not helpful in the long run.

The other “excitement” of the week was a potential job opportunity which 2 ex-colleagues approached me earlier in the week. It turned out to be a miscommunication and it was for a junior post for which I was not a suitable candidate. Oh well, so much for the mental buildup to steel myself to apply for it. It was good that the supervisor in charge told me upfront yesterday and we agreed to close the case. Not really looking forward to doing a full-time job nowadays but I would really like to become a full-time student though 😉 Campus life will make me feel young again…

I feel that we are now living in a limbo world with newer unknowns and the inertia to move forward. Crunch time is approaching where brave decisions have to be made.

Firstly, we are more than 9 months into vaccines but everything has been disrupted by Delta and the soon to be arriving Delta Plus. Breakthrough cases of vaccinated people are to be expected but the recent surge happening around the world is disconcerting. Where do we go from here?

The S’pore government had decided to extend the lockdown by another month this week as rising cases seems to be stabilizing but fatalities remain high by our standards. Things seem to be getting out of whack and some implemented processes are becoming illogical. We are opening more VTL (Vaccinated Travel Lanes) with countries but yet we still only allow a maximum of only 2 persons to dine out. Families are unable to eat out at a single table. The fear and siege mentality are still pretty much amongst us.

The authorities are saying that they are worried about reaching the maximum hospitalization capacity and increasing Covid deaths. But the data clearly shows that (1) It is now mainly a pandemic of the unvaccinated and (2) the most vulnerable high-risk group taking up the ICU beds and dying are those above 60 years of age.

If that is the case, then we should attack the problems that are the root causes. We should get the high risk (>60) vaccinated group to take their booster shots asap – which is happening right now as we speak. Then mandate vaccination for all the above 60 who remains unvaccinated to save as many lives as possible. There is about 80k of those above 60 that remain unvaccinated. Most are probably not working and not well informed. If it is made compulsory to take it, most will follow the government ruling. Not having the shots and getting Covid now, coupled with old age comorbidities can be a death warrant for many. This is preventable.

For the rest of the unvaccinated numbering 6% of the population (excluding those below 12 who currently do not have access to the vaccine), further movement restrictions will equate to having their own personal self-quarantine. They already cannot visit malls or eat at hawker centres. Work mandates that are happening around the world will likely be coming here soon too. This had convinced the fence-sitters to choose to have a livelihood over vaccine hesitancy.

On the other hand, it is understandable that parents are worried about the long term effects of the vaccine on their kids. Based on the available data to date, they can still afford to have a wait and see attitude as a majority of children do have mild Covid and recover. But the effect of long Covid on children is still unknown. It is a tough call for them to make. The 12 to 18 years old had started the vaccination, so perhaps more data will be available soon to make a better judgement call for the 5 to 11 years old group.

For the rest of us, the majority are now vaccinated at about 85%. If we remove the number of kids below 12 where vaccination is still not available, the balance of 15% unvaccinated is reduced to around 6%. This unvaccinated minority of 6% should not hold the rest of us as hostages due to their various thinking or beliefs. We have enough lockdowns and Covid fatigue to want to return to a sense of normalcy. Reopening is inevitable as we move towards an endemic strategy. Eventually, all of us are likely to get Covid at some point in the future, it will be a mild reaction like the common flu that is also treatable with medication.

I am currently waiting for my turn to receive the booster shot. The last 4 weeks of lockdown is starting to condition me into being a full home body. Going out for more than half a day seems strange and uncomfortable after almost 2 years of this pandemic. All our worlds have been turned upside down and the mental health of many have been stressed tremendously.

The rapid adoption of technology has been a saving grace for the functioning of our economy. Personally, I completed a full time 6 months of classroom training this year that was totally online. I had only met my classmates once face to face. We had project discussions, exams and classes in the comfort of our homes. My wardrobe has now shrunk to just a few T-shirts and shorts. That is all I need in this new world order.

We are tired now and want to return to some form of the old normal, if we can even remember it, to preserve our sanity. Food prices are rising and supply chains are also choking globally. Energy prices are rising into wintertime and the flu season can be tough as the weather gets colder. Continous government subsidies tapping on reserves (if any) or living on borrowed (printing) monies had flooded the markets with fiat currencies to the point where our future is being compromised as we kick the can down the road.

I sincerely hope that the authorities can zero in on the root causes of the heightened fatalities and overcrowding of the hospitals to address them. Please do not keep the majority hostage even as the rest of the world reopens up aggressively. We do know much more now about the virus than a year ago. We need to confront the situation and make newer and braver decisions now. Two steps forward and one step back may be required to finetune the work in process strategy, but it is simply not acceptable to take one step forward and two steps backwards.

S’pore continues to have daily high positive Covid cases even as the 3rd booster shot is being rolled out to the most vulnerable group (>60 years old). The other factor that is more depressing is the death rate. We had hit an all-time daily high of 15 persons a few days ago.

For the death rate, we observe that most have comorbidities that made the covid infection fatal. But a trend we can see is that the majority are from the unvaccinated or partially vaccinated (only 1 shot). They make up almost two-thirds of the fatalities. This is even more shocking as the unvaccinated group is now officially a minority group of the overall population as we are approaching the 85% vaccinated target for the population. If you exclude the children below 12 that are not eligible for the shots, then the numbers are even more glaring that the death rate for the unvaccinated is actually very high.

Assuming a population of 5 million, 15% equates to 750,000. If half are children below 12, then this number of unvaccinated persons is around 350,000. We are told that there are around 80k of elderly above 60 that belongs to this group. This is the most vulnerable group as almost all deaths are confined to 60 years or older to date.

There is a case to be argued that we should now have a compulsory vaccine mandate for those above 60. It is not only to save as many lives as possible but is also to ensure that our hospitals and ICU beds are not overwhelmed. Work-related mandates will not be effective for this group as most are retirees.

The authorities have recently implemented restrictive orders for the unvaccinated that includes not being allowed into malls and not being able to dine in at hawker centres. It seems like this group will eventually be squeezed to a corner to finally agree to take the vaccine. This is a gradual strategy as they move from the carrot to stick approach and hopefully to mandate it soon. Sometimes we need external forces to help us save ourselves from ourselves to get out of the echo chamber of fake news about the vaccines. The risk-reward ratio between taking or not taking it is very obvious now.

The other interesting observation that is happening now is the work mindset paradigm shift post-Covid. A recent US report indicates that up to 4.3 million workers are still missing from the workforce as the economy reopens. There are multiple reasons for it. Some believe that the Covid financial support measures that the government had rolled out are discouraging people from returning to the market. Working from Home (WFH) is the new normal and getting back to the office is now a fearful prospect for some.

I believe that the multiple unprecedented lockdowns we had experience over the last 18 months have changed all our previous work mindsets. We question the old way of doing things as technology had made us realised that online video calls are workable and viable. They are even preferred now as virus transmission is much high for face to face meetings. Most of your clients probably don’t even want to meet you in person nowadays!

The old concept of business travel, wasting many hours to fly overseas to attend a meeting with clients and colleagues, seems so alien now. Having a Zoom call is more effective, no? This has been how I have been communicating with my Myanmar team for the last 18 months as we battle crisis after crisis in my consultancy role. Necessity is the mother of invention.

Covid has also reshaped our thoughts and values of what we want out of work now. The pandemic had shown us how precious life is and the importance of spending quality time with your loved ones. It has helped us prioritize and refocus on what is important and what is not. Having material wealth is good, but is it the be-all and end-all? Is it time now to pivot to something that you really want to do before it is too late?

Self-reflection on your career at this point in time has probably made many reassess themselves and pushed them to do something different. The new normal has questioned whether one wants to start your own business as a better option than to continue on a regular 9 to 5 job for which you have no passion for. It is a critical halftime moment for many of us as we transition to the next phase of an endemic Covid.

On the personal front, it was a relatively quiet week as we head into the 3rd week of the lockdown, as I figure out what I want to do next going forward. Feeling a bit lost after I completed my IBM AI course and thinking of quitting the Myanmar consultancy work as the situation is so depressing and I feel helpless towards it as an overseas outsider.

Two things brighten me up though. My 4th year of participation in the NUSS Mentorship program kicked off on Monday as we mentors met 25 potential mentees over a Zoom call. It was not ideal and I almost wanted to drop out after the call as I think the selection process is weak. Thankfully, one of the candidates I shortlisted myself from the data provided before the call was proactive in reaching out to me to want to get to know me better via a one on one call. I guess we can click and we agreed to give it a shot.

I had been looking out for another course to sign up for, given my lifelong learning goal. They have been generally tech-related as my interest was reinforced after my 6 months IBM AI SGUnited course. But alas, I could not qualify for most of them as I had utilized the one-time subsidy for most courses. The previous application for a long term internship at Financial Institutions via IBF also did not look promising.

After about 10 applications, I chance upon a new one organized by my alma mater which piqued my interest. It was an 11 weeks course on Fintech in which the lecturers encouraged older mid-career PMETs to sign up during the preview session. I was quite surprised that they also conducted the required interview and assessment segments right after the preview call and made us apply online. It will start in Jan 2022 and I would have to pay an additional 2k after all subsidies. Looks promising. https://fintechlab.nus.edu.sg/nus-fintechsg-programme/

https://www.mauldineconomics.com/frontlinethoughts/logistical-sandpiles

“In the COVID recession, people were forced to not work, or to work in very difficult situations. This made them rethink age-old questions. What do you want out of life? Long-haul truck driving is lonely and difficult, and from the data unhealthy. Most of my readers are retired or hold jobs they find fulfilling. But if you work in the lower levels of the hospitality industry or other dangerous jobs, if you don’t feel appreciated, maybe you start thinking about changing careers even if you make good money. The McKinsey data clearly shows that’s what is happening.

Second, COVID has introduced pressures into life that weren’t there before. And if you don’t feel comfortable going out in public, it’s difficult to say “I want a job” where you would be working in public. Throw in the political divide of mandates versus non-mandates, the finger-pointing, the politicization of the virus, the mis- and disinformation about vaccines and the virus, and you have a witch’s brew of reluctant workers.

Wages are important but less than many employers think. They are treating the problem as if it is a transaction. If I offer you more money, you should want to work here. But potential employees are obviously looking for something more than a mere transaction (money) to be the center and focus of their own personal lives. It is truly a clash of cultures, kind of like Baby Boomers not understanding Gen X or Y.”

“Worker shortages plus logistical difficulties plus rising demand add up to big economic problems. Shortages are becoming common in all manner of goods. Louis Gave listed three reasons in a recent note.

The first is the big data revolution. The newfound ability to measure everything has given companies and governments an incentive to eliminate redundancies and “optimize” the delivery of products and services. Unfortunately, systems with no redundancies are inherently fragile. When challenges appear, prices surge.

The second factor is previous policy interventions. If three years ago Donald Trump had not announced that China would no longer be allowed to import semiconductors built with US technology, would the world be facing the same chip shortages today? And if governments had not been so vocal about transitioning from carbon to renewables, would the world be seeing the current surge in energy prices?

The third, and most important, factor is today’s lack of workers. This was clear in the release Friday of disappointing US job numbers for September. Payrolls came in significantly below expectations. Yet the unemployment rate still fell, implying that US labor participation continues to deteriorate.

The real problem is we have very limited control over all these factors. Adding more redundancies might help but would take time and add costs, as Louis notes. It wouldn’t solve the near-term problem.”

The world is resigned to the fact that Covid19 is here to stay and it is virtually impossible to eradicate the virus completely from the face of the earth. We simply have to live with it like what we have done for the flu virus, hoping that it will slowly die out first before a newer and deadlier variant is formed.

The move from a pandemic to an endemic took us more than 18 months to discover that a zero Covid strategy is unworkable. Even as vaccines are discovered, the uneven rollout throughout the world means that a vaccine herd immunity outcome is difficult to achieve globally. New Zealand just realized this and have changed its strategy this week. Only China (with Hong Kong and Macau) is the remaining major country remaining to pursue this zero covid goal.

What we now know about vaccines: It lowers the probability of contracting the virus and if you do get it, it lowers the probability of hospitalization or eventual death. Like most vaccines, the shield to prevent you from getting the virus seems to fade after a few months. Hence the rush is now on to take the 3rd booster shot.

Those that are against taking the vaccines are fearful of the long term consequences of taking this new mRNA shot. Some are mindful of possible effects on their young children. As the unvaccinated becomes a minority soon, the vaccinated majority have started applying pressure on this smaller group to get the shots.

Governments and private companies are now implementing vaccine mandates on their workers. If it does not happen by the declared deadline, the worker will likely lose his job. Given Hobson’s choice, the mandates have pushed many to cross the line to get it. The last remaining anti-vaxxers have run out of excuses not to take it, as overwhelming evidence suggest that the risk is much higher if you do not take the vaccine.

On a Clubhouse chat I heard, a woman was saying that she is standing up for the younger children by taking a stand against vaccines. I call that BS. Even though you think you have the right to choose, all bets are off in a pandemic. Keeping the community safe is more important than individual liberties. One’s selfish behaviour affects everyone and the ultimate price to pay is with your life besides risking the lives of others by giving out false information.

This is a gamble not worth taking as the odds are stacked against you. If you cannot even survive beyond the next year, what is the point of talking about the long term effects? Plus you have a 1 in 4 chance of developing long covid without the vaccine. If you are going to a war tomorrow and are given a shield that gives you a 90+% probability of survival, would you not take it?

From data gathered so far, vaccine mandates are working. They encourage more people to take it as they value job security over personal choice and rights. It is the only practical path when the pandemic is causing massive job losses around the world. You can go protest as much as you want over weekends, but you still need to put food on the table.

In S’pore, we have been experiencing surges in positive cases, currently to more than 3k per day now. Deaths have been increasing for mainly those above 50 years old. There are still some due to breakthrough cases of vaccinated patients but almost all have underlying comorbidities. The same cannot be said for the unvaccinated deaths. They could have been saved if they took their vaccines.

There is still a group of over 60 years old of about 80k that remains unvaccinated. This may be because of misplaced fears, thinking that it’s not necessary as they are already old or that they are living alone and not aware of it. I think it is time for the authorities to try to save as many of them as possible by having a vaccine mandate for those above 60. Forcing these 80k to take it to save more lives and minimize preventable deaths is a noble cause, no?

For the breakthrough cases of the vaccinated, we are starting to see newer drugs being introduced to fight the virus, like the one from Merck that is orally taken which was announced this week. While doctors try their best to save them, the immediate action plan for the vaccinated is to take the 3rd booster shot. It is a preventive measure to shore up individual immunity for the high risk and vulnerable group.

In an endemic, positive cases will be a way of life and we should not focus so much on it anymore. It just creates fear and apprehension within the population. We should concentrate on preventing more deaths by whatever means available to us and it is backed by science. That should be the main endemic goal and strategy going forward. The game plan has to change accordingly to embrace the virus and fight it logically and practically.

While the conservative group still prefers lockdowns whenever there is a surge, this approach cannot continue as it cripples the economy and it is not a long term solution. We have to bravely craft our new endemic strategy, look to the rest of the world for directions and best practices to try to return to the new normal. The 2nd anniversary of covid is fast approaching upon us…

In the last few weeks, many countries have seen a surge in cases caused mainly by the Delta variant. Even as billions of vaccines have been injected and countries like Israel and S’pore hitting a greater than 80% population being vaccinated (plus a 3rd booster kicking in), the positive cases seem to be exploding.

To be fair, the death rate does not seem to be much higher than the highs achieved last year even as positive cases rising, except in S’pore where it had always been low but it had more than doubled in the last one mth. Everyone is getting confused and scared with all the mixed messaging going on. Is vaccine herd immunity still a viable working solution? What is really going on now?

Two schools of thought had been fighting it out in different countries. For zero tolerance ones like China, HK and Australia, it means a full lockdown to contain the virus. For countries like Europe and the US, they are moving towards an endemic strategy to target reopening with the realization that we have to live with the virus amongst us.

S’pore is one such country that is caught in the middle of both schools of thought. While we have done so well since last year in contact tracing to ring-fence linked and unlinked clusters, we are also trying to move cautiously to an endemic strategy too.

At one end of the argument, there is a call to have more lockdowns to stop the spread to protect everyone. At the other end of the debate, there are calls to continue to pivot to reopening as it is inevitable. Are we taking 2 steps forward and one backwards or is it 1 step forward and 2 backwards?

This is not an easy problem to address and we need to look at the facts and science to determine the next steps. Firstly, the recent deaths have mainly occurred in the most vulnerable group of older people above 60 years old. The ratio of unvaccinated versus fully vaccinated mortality was a factor of 3 to 1 (35 versus 12 deaths). Additionally, almost all of the vaccinated had prior medical comorbidities which made contacting Covid fatal for them. Hence the 3rd booster shot had been rushed out to this group as a way to further protect them from this deadly surge.

Yet we still have about 80 to 100k of unvaccinated seniors. Should the authorities mandate vaccination to this high-risk group now? I believe that it is prudent to do so as a way to further minimize deaths. Most from this group may be fearful of the vaccine, live alone or feel that there is no need for it as they are near the end of their lives. If the government mandates it, then they would have no choice. This will be the best way to save as many lives as possible now.

Vaccine mandates are already starting to show higher vaccination results around the world. Private companies, medical facilities and government agencies are beginning to require them by a certain deadline or face job termination. Some Americans as usual are bitching about 1st amendment rights against the vaccine mandates. But isn’t community safety more important than individual choice in a pandemic situation? The virus does not discriminate and seeks out every weak link to exploit them. Some anti-vaxxers ironically don’t even want to wear masks and continue to fight for their “freedom” to get back to living a normal life. Don’t they get it that they are now the cause of a prolonged Covid winter?

As billions of people are vaccinated, the unvaccinated are slowly becoming the minority. The majority therefore should have the right to restrict their movements in order to contain the spread. Nurses who refuse should not be allowed to be near vulnerable old and sick people as the risk of contamination is high. This is logical fact and science-based. To date, if your livelihood is threatened, the hesitancy to the vaccine is shown to be lowered. You will take it to preserve your job.

Financially and economically, S’pore like all countries have been suffering. National reserves are being used or more fiat money printed to subsidize the badly wounded economies. We are nearing the 2nd anniversary of Covid soon and the pressure to go back to some kind of new normal is reaching breaking point. Mental health is a growing concern for every human being. Zero tolerance of the virus is unsustainable and I believe that an endemic strategy of reopening is the only logical way to go, unless you are China and can create a permanent wall around its borders and just ignore the rest of the world by looking inwards.

If we need to take baby steps to an endemic strategy of reopening, so be it. But we cannot walk backwards. We have to proactively protect the vulnerable using mandates if necessary. We need to lessen the fear associated with the virus as we are now in a better position to fight back using vaccines. Those that still refuse to take it even after all scientific facts and proof had been provided should have their movements and privileges severely restricted for the good of society. Statistics should be changed to just show the critical cases and the load on ICU beds instead of trying to scare citizens with maps of where to avoid in our little red dot.

It is time to make bold moves to chart our next move and to remove the confusion to fight the unseen enemy head-on. 21 months is enough and humanity will and must win.

Delta has thrown every country’s reopening strategy into chaos in the last 3 months. The only Covid startegy of herd immunity via vaccinations is now a big question mark.

Since Dec 2020, it had been the main goal of many governments to roll out the vaccination plan as quickly as possible to stop the virus. We have had the original Alpha variant last year and then it was Beta before the deadly Delta mutation appeared in Q1. It has totally crippled the idea of getting back to normal by summertime as cases surged into Q3.

While the overall death rate seems to be lower than last year’s peak, the spike in positive cases had reached previous highs and seems to be out of control. Israel activated its 3rd booster shot plan a few months ago in the hope of arresting this trend. But at the moment, the data is still inconclusive if the booster protects a highly vaccinated population.

But the US and S’pore have already decided to go ahead with the booster vaccine for the high-risk older age group anyway. It seems like the vaccine protection will wear off slowly after a period of 4 to 6 months. A recent study showed that the vaccine efficacy could drop from 90+% effectiveness to 77%. It was suggested that the amount of other medications for comorbidities that this older group had to take may somehow affect the strength of the vaccine.

In S’pore, the positive case count had been steadily rising from below a hundred to more than 1,500 a day now. The authorities have warned us that it could shoot up to a few thousand soon. New restriction of movements had been announced last night, to reduce dine-in to 2 from 5 persons starting on Monday for a month.

This start-stop approach is baffling all of us as the uncertainty has created a fear of the unknown. The authorities are executing a work in progress endemic strategy and have been trying to figure out each step as new challenges appear. There is no established playbook to rely on. On top of that, we have a population vaccinated rate of more than 82% now. So are vaccines working or are we to blame the remaining minority who still refuse to take the vaccine for this surge?

We do know that regardless of being vaccinated or not, a person can still get Delta and spread it. But a vaccinated person stands a better chance of getting a mild reaction without the need to be hospitalized or to be ventilated. An unvaccinated person is 11 times more likely to die from the virus. There is a possibility that we have to continue to take booster vaccine shots periodically for the foreseeable future as new variants emerge.

Globally, developed countries have sufficient vaccine supplies to provide for their population. But the rest of the world, especially developing ones are still scrambling to get enough of it. Hence in these countries, the chances of a new variant being formed remain high and it may be years before they complete the vaccination process. Polio and measles took a look time to reach total eradication globally and we could see the same for Covid.

Currently, the sudden surge in cases everywhere is worrying for everyone. Are vaccines working and is getting herd immunity via vaccine still the goal? The target was raised from 70% to 80 and even 90 now. We know that Delta is a few times more contagious than the older variants. Deaths are now happening mostly for the older age group with comorbidities like hypertension and diabetes in S’pore. But in the US, it is happening mainly in the unvaccinated group for all ages.

S’pore is trying to take the 2 steps forward and one step back approach to formulate its endemic strategy. This has frustrated both sides of the argument to reopen/close the economy. Going back to a total lockdown is out of the question now but taking baby steps forward seems to be the only viable solution.

Contact tracing is another area that is being questioned now. Seeing unlinked clusters previously invoked fear and the avoidance of certain areas for the general public. But if we are to treat the virus as an endemic going forward, should we still continue to track it so closely? We don’t do it for the common cold, do we?

One interesting comment from a doctor friend was enlightening to me. He had been vaccinated but wants to get covid now because it would be the ultimate natural protection against the virus, on top of the vaccine taken. But he is unable to do so as he belongs to the front lines and has to be tested every week for Covid.

Where do we go from here? I suspect that after our new mini one-month lockdown, we will continue our baby steps towards reopening again. The economic cost of multiple lockdowns over the last 18 months has been highly damaging to businesses and eating into the country’s reserves rapidly. This new lockdown for 4 weeks will cost the government another SGD 650 million of new subsidies.

Those that fear the rising cases in the next few weeks will now stay home and play it safe while waiting to get the booster shots. The rest would try to lead as normal a life as possible within the current restrictions in this new normal.

Would this continue much longer? The last 1918 pandemic took about 2 years to subside and we are almost near the milestone now. With newer technology and knowledge, we should stand a better chance now to defeat the virus and keep it at bay effectively soon. Fingers crossed…