Author: CheckW

We had a fantastic ride up in the last month of 2017 for all cryptocurrencies.

My newly created crypto portfolio from end-Sep was already up +500% by then, mostly thanks to XRP which went from $0.20 to over $3 in a matter of weeks. As I told my close buddies, this was indeed the forming of a bubble and I was trying to enjoy the ride while it last. My biggest mistake was not to take some profit as I was greedy. I was also on vacation most of Dec, away from my PC and not being able to place orders securely.

My strategy at the start was to go into the top 10 cryptos to maximize the bang for the buck for my initial capital. I figured that the biggest ones would have sufficient liquidity to get in and out. By then, Bitcoin (XBT) was also getting too expensive in absolute value to initiate a meaningful new exposure. The others had a much lower price to enable me to create a sizeable position.

The more research I did on cryptos, the more I realized the shortcomings of Bitcoin relative to the newer ones. They were better than XBT in terms of speed, transparency(and/Or)secrecy and quick adaptation to newer applications. Etherum (ETH) was one such competitor that was created by its 23 years old founder. I read about the hard-fork he did recently to recover from a hacking/thief incident. This, in turn, created another new crypto called ETC (Etherum Classic). ETH was already $288 per token by the time I bought it in late Sep. It is currently around 1k.

Ripple XRP was the other one that showed a lot of promise as many banks were open to adopting it for new blockchain initiatives.  I decided to bet most of my “ready to lose it all” capital on XRP as its token cost was only 20 cents. The main setback was that it does not have a limited maximum amount like Bitcoin (21 million tokens), but its potential supply was quite huge (running into the billions).

The crypto euphoria ends abruptly by the second week of Jan as a series of negative news took a toll on it. Asia was the speculative fever central of cryptos worldwide and a number of Asian governments had started to announce that they want to control or shut down unlicensed exchanges. Korea was the one country that was especially crazy over cryptos and their exchanges were usually commanding a premium of as much as over 40% in terms of prices. KRW was a very much controlled currency and I could see active pumping of prices happening every Sunday afternoon (cryptos trade 24 x 7). Coinbase and other American OTC exchanges also announced that they will begin to exclude Korean related OTC prices from their price aggregators. This only serves to accelerate the downward spiral of prices, up to 50% for some within a week.

Where do we go from here? I still strongly believe that BlockChain is here for the long term and it is going to smash and destroy the way businesses are conducted. Cryptos are just a by-product of this earth-shattering movement that will be coming. The very idea that governments think that they can control cryptos is just this – wishful thinking. Its very existence was borne of a desire to escape from fiat currencies which central banks have been abusing for years since the GFC days of 2008. Very soon, they will start to realize that they cannot control something that cannot be controlled, does not respect borders and which is manned by the masses in a fully transparent way. The open ledger of blockchain managed by millions of individuals will trump over man-made central banks.

My strategy now? I have been expanding into more cryptos, having gone into 16 types to date. Some can only be traded via Bitcoin and ETH crosses, hence it was also an opportunity for me to take some profit in XBTUSD/ETHUSD and reinvest the funds elsewhere. Kraken has been a bit buggy of late, so I have also initiated the process to open another account in Bitfinex to hedge my bets on unregulated exchanges just in case. I am still bullish on XRP, my biggest holding. I hope that I can take some money off the table if it reaches its old highs again. As I have told my friends, I may want to recoup back my initial capital and then keep the rest of the positions to partake in the crypto journey.

We can see that various asset classes are starved of volatility in the era of easy money and hyper asset inflation. Cryptos are the only game in town that provides this adrenaline rush of Vols. We will see more opportunistic players coming into this asset class in 2018 to try to profit from it. As more people come into this area, we will see a validation of Blockchain and cryptos as the next evolving step of a big technological trend.

 

After sending my older son to NS last Wed, the 3 of us went for a vacation in Yogyakarta. We figured that since he has a 2 weeks confinement period in camp ahead of him and that younger boy only starts junior college in Feb, we should do a short trip now.

Wife has been gushing about this place for the last few months as friends who had been there were posting nice photos on FB. Seems like a place with rich history to explore and be close to nature.

We stayed in the Pheonix hotel, which was a smaller replica of our Raffles hotel. It will be celebrating its 100th anniversary this year and we could see the laid-back majestic nature of the hotel environment.

Upon arrival in the morning, we began with an afternoon tour to Prambanan, which was a national park that was a UNESCO World Heritage Site as it was more than 1,000 years old. Our timing was not too good as there was a heavy downpour. Watched a cultural show in the evening before we called it a day.

The next day, we visited the Jomblang cave in the morning. It was quite an adventure, being lowered 90 meters into a sunken cave and then walking another 400 meters to watch the spectacular sights of the waterfalls at the opening on the other side of the cave via the mid-day sun shining down the hole. Magical! The afternoon was spent doing water tubing along the river of Gao Pindul. It was indeed a very physical and eventful day.

We had to sleep early that night as we had to wake up at 3 am to watch the sunrise at Borobudur. The Hindu cultural influence started in the 8th century but by the 15th century, Islam had taken over. We reached Merapi mountain in the late morning to watch up close the still active volcano which was last in action in 2010 with 400+ casualties. Took a 4-wheeler on the bumpy road to get a first-hand account of the disaster. This was followed by a nice Ullen Sentalu museum visit to get to know more about the recent nobility history of Yogja to better understand the Javanese culture.

Wife had to go back the next day for work and we had a chill day with massages at the hotel. Son and I stayed for another 3 days for more father-son bonding sessions. We did a cycling tour of the Kota Gede village and visited the Parangtritis beach, saw a lot of shopping malls and ate a lot. It was good to have spent quality time with him.

This was an enriching trip to the old capital of Indonesia. I never knew that there was so much history (more than 1,300 years) of past civilizations and fantastic natural sights (caves and mountains). The place is like Singapore in the 1950s, very laid back and of a time long ago.

 

 

Last Wednesday was a bittersweet moment for me. We had to send my older son to military camp to start his 22 months NS (National Service) and it was a nostalgic moment for me to return to the island again after 33 years. All 18 year olds had to go for 3 months of basic military training and Pulau Tekong was the destination of choice for most of us.

I was so proud to see my grown son entering the next phase of his life, but yet as a parent, I was sad and apprehensive that he is going from a sheltered environment into a new, tougher world. He will eventually emerged from this as a young man. Mummy was absolutely worried. This is the rite of passage for all Singaporean males since the late 1960’s. Having experience it myself for 30 months (it was 2.5 years during my time), I have tried to share my learnings with him over the months.

The most valuable lesson I learnt from my stint in NS was how lucky I was, to have a future ahead of me, to be able to enter uni to further my studies after NS. I had a wonderful and supportive family to help me through it all. My social circle widened tremendously and I met people from all walks of life. I made friends with people I would never have seen in my previously cocooned junior college life, some with little future to look forward to, which I had written about in my earlier blogs.

Told my son to keep his mind open and stay positive. Life will be very different but he should enjoy the ride. I firmly believe that this will mold him into a more matured adult and that he will learn life long lessons which will be applicable to him for the rest of his life.

Over the last 7 days, we have had phone calls with him every night at 930 pm, the permitted time where they can use their handphones to call loved ones. As I had informed him before, the first few days were slow and peppered with administrative events. The army is trying to ease them into military life and understands that not everyone’s physical strength is at its peak yet, hence a gradual ramp up of the exercises during these first 2 weeks of confinement period in camp. He will be out next week and I had promised him that I will eat with him the list of food he misses during this 2 weeks of camp life.

Meanwhile, the army had also kindly given us a self-addressed envelope to send personal letters to him which he will receive them after his 6 days of field camp in the later part of his 10+ weeks of BMT. My wife, younger son and I will each aim to write him a heart felt letter to encourage and egg him on.

Ah Boyz to Men indeed – the name of a popular local movie that chronicles the NS journey. I do occassionally view the home videos I made of the kids when they were babies till now. How they have grown and I have aged. It is so rewarding to see a defenceless infant grow up in front of your eyes to become a young adult who is now ready to defend the nation.

 

 

Just completed a fantastic 2 weeks family vacation in Great Britain and back in time to celebrate the approach of a new year with friends last night.

This trip was planned for months and timing was critical because of my older son’s A-level exams and subsequent military national service enlistment in early Jan. It will be the last long vacation with the whole family for a while, given that for the next 4 years, both sons would have to complete their 22 months NS one after the other and it will be tough for them to take their annual leave of 14 days at one go.

Given the shorter daylight hours (only 8 hours per day from 8 am to 4 pm), we decided to start off with a road trip directly from the airport when we landed. Pleasantly surprised that the rental car was a Mercedes C220 diesel model that drove very smoothly.

First stop was Torquay for 2 nights in Devon after a 3+ hours drive. Visited the Eden Project and then to Stone Henge and Bath before another 2 nights at Southampton. Had to get used to the weather that was below 10 degrees Celsius most of the time. Last stop was in Oxford where Justin had applied for, to help him get an idea of the university town that he may attend.

Dropped the car in London and spent 8 nights at King’s Cross in a nice service apartment. Rediscovered London again after my last trip there almost 20 years ago. Lots of eating and walking around and Christmas eve and boxing day were spent with close relatives. The 5 kg prime beef bone-in roast was really good…

We tried all the great eating places (Barrafina, Four Seasons, Lobsters & Burgers and Core) and watched 2 musicals (Thriller and Book of Mormons). Cost of living is so high there, even the train tubes were expensive. Made a mistake of taking the black cab taxi once and the damage was GBP 28! Thanks to Uber, we discovered it was the cheapest way to move around London. They were a manageable GBP 7 to 12 per trip, sometimes even cheaper than public transport for a group of 4.

We even had an adventurous day trip to Cambridge where we experienced snow for a few hours. Christmas day was when everything was closed and we had to eat at Chinatown where they only had “special” menus. White rice was a ripoff at GBP 5.5 per person!

Overall, a very nice family vacation where we had quality time with the boys as they get ready to turn into men soon when military service starts. Told wife we will probably be having more couple vacations in the future as they start getting plans of their own with friends and girlfriends.

A pleasant surprise while on vacation : Thanks to XRP Ripple shooting up in price from 0.20 to 2.30 , my crypto portfolio MTM is now +400% … Crazy!

The 4 of us finally completed our Bangkok trip over this past weekend, spending 3 nights there. This trip was to relive the 2 weeks backpacking journey we took as undergraduates way back in Jun 1989.

Being relatively dirt poor during our uni days, 5 of us had then decided to travel throughout Thailand on the cheapest way possible. On the first leg, we took the bus and ferry to Koh Samui, arriving at our final destination only after 28 hours of being on the road. We then headed to ChiangMai by overnight train after stopping at BKK for a few days. We did a jungle tracking trip into the opium lands with many adventurous foreigners like ourselves and the experience was unforgettable. After all these years, the group of us still talk about this trip all the time.

Earlier this year, one of the guys discovered he had colon cancer after a routine medical checkup. The next 6 months were spent on a major operation, chemotherapy and recovery. Glad to say that things turned out well for him. During one of our recent walks, we started discussing the good, old times, reminiscing about the 1989 Thailand trip. This was when we decided to call the rest of the gang to redo it again, to fulfill our bucket wish list 28 years later.

After much planning, we finally set off last Thursday for BKK. The accommodation of choice was a new hotel (Ibis) in the heart of the Khao San road backpacking community. It was indeed a memorable time where we relived the old times, did a few things that we had done before like the riverboat cruise. Given that we are much older now and financially better off, the meaning of “roughing it out” is now very different from our uni days. We did all the touristy things, with lots of massages, eating and shopping. Felt good to be young again, without much care to the world. Can’t believe that we are all in our fifties now, uni life seems so long ago now.

Life is about good experiences now. We cherish what we have, make events happen that can create more happiness and great memories. Friendship is precious and most cannot honestly say that we still do have close friends whom we know for more than 30 years. Let’s live each day as if it is the last day of our lives.

Yes, Dec is already here. What a year for me. Lots of new experiences and forward-looking moves to prepare for my second half.

I started this blog in Apr last year, beginning with daily entries and now on a weekly basis. To date, I had written about 180+ blogs and counting. There were a few key reasons I wanted to start this blog :

1.  To improve my writing skills. I find that with regular practice and the help of auto-correction software, I am (hopefully) able to write better.
2. To help me focus. By having to think of a topic to write every week, it has forced me to crystallize my thoughts more clearly. The added advantage is that it makes it easier to then bring them to action (eg. cryptos investment). I want to stop being a NATO (No Action, Talk Only) guy.
3. To keep an online record of memorable things that happened in my past, life learning thoughts and future ambitions. If my 2 boys like to know more about their old man in the future, they can just refer to this blog to get into the inner workings of my brain…
4. Venturing into new technology. You cannot say that you truly understand the new world until you dip your feet into it. With age comes risk aversion and the fear of new things. This is one of my ways to try to break out of that cycle.

If anyone stumbles onto my blog by chance and finds it interesting/amusing, then that is an added bonus for me.

Anyway, back to my other topic for the week. What events stood out for me in 2017? The year began with a promising start of a new job for me and I was committed to working my butt off. Things went downhill shortly after in Feb when my new boss lost his job. By May, it was inevitable that things were not tenable for me and the new person I was reporting to, with a mismatch in expectations. Subsequently, I went on gardening leave from Jun till Sep, with more time to reflect on what I want to do next.

Going into my 3rd break in my working life, I came to the undeniable truth that age is working against me and that perhaps banking is a sunset industry for PMETs like myself. I really needed to pivot myself into something different and try to leverage on my past work experience if possible.

Ironically, my timing may have been good because the government was also pushing a more aggressive agenda of skills upgrade for PMETs like myself via the SkillsFuture initiative. By now, I was less fearful of taking exams since I had to redo all my bank exams again earlier this year (7 CFMAS related certifications) as they have lapsed when I left the industry for more than 3 years. By planning my time well and being focused on the task at hand, I was able to pass the exams and convinced myself that nothing was impossible if you put your mind to it.

On the learning front, the more I researched, the more I realized that there were so many things out there I do not know. There is still so much to learn from a constantly moving world. I had some experience here already as I was doing a lot of online elearning last year during my 2nd break from work (hashtags, affiliate marketing, media optimization via FB, Google).

Things fell into place and in quick succession, I completed 3 courses by Nov – Science and Business of Wine, Intro to Business Analytics, Starting a Small Business. The latest one is my most ambitious – Specialist Diploma in Business Analytics, a 6 months course in a local polytechnic.

Lifelong learning is now my goal going forward. This focused approach to anything that interests me and then doing a deep dive learning process has sparked a revival of energy for me. It has opened doors for me to explore and sharpened my focus.

On the investment and trading front, I managed to fine-tune my portfolio to be in line with my overall macro views, starting with an initial top-down review followed by a bottoms-up analysis, complemented by technical analysis for entry levels. It has also finally made me jump into the world of cryptocurrencies. Being a firm believer of blockchain as the next wave of innovation that will Uberize everything we touch, this was a natural step. I also had the opportunity to explore doing voluntary work (sitting on NGO boards) as well as a possible Myanmar consultancy project.

There is no fear of the future anymore, only excitement. So much to do and so little time. You are what you make it out to be. You die if you stop learning. Live each day as if it was your last on planet earth.

 

These are the 2 topics that occupied my time and thinking this week.

As I mentioned in my previous post, I was looking for a business opportunity as a consultant for a microfinance firm based in Myanmar. My ex-colleague is now the CEO and he recommended me to the group CEO who was the owner of one of the largest agricultural groups there. He finally arranged for a face to face lunch meeting on Thursday where I met the group CEO, COO and CFO. It was a day trip for me, taking the 3 hours flight there and back on the same day. I am glad to say that the lunch meeting went well. We had a very fruitful discussion and putting a face to the names always help to build the business relationship. Let’s see how we can take this from here.

Myanmar seems to have changed a lot again after my last trip there almost 2 years ago. There seems to be a buzz of activities and people are excited about their future prospects. Having been shut off from the world for so many years, they have now opened themselves to the world in a rapid fashion. The people have tasted materialism and now want more. It is the infrastructure, both physical and policy-wise, that is lagging far behind which the new government is grappling with. Without the military at the front seat now, the newly elected leader is overwhelmed and under delivering. She is not getting enough technocrats into the team but fighting political battles that seemed to have toned down her previous campaigning rhetoric. I hope that this will change as they move back on track to rapid country development in a sustainable way.

The other thing that gave me a light bulb flashing moment this week : batteries. It may have been triggered by Elon’s Tesla reveal of their new toy last week. He showcased their new electrical truck and surprised the crowds with a brand new sports car too, all run by batteries. I started to realize that we have so many things we use in our daily lives which have a battery in them. We have mobile phones, watches, cars, drones and even homes for the storage of power from solar panels.

Battery technology is so old, starting from Nickel Cadmium and now to Lithium Ion, which has been around for many years already. I would have guessed by now that there should have been a quantum leap in new battery technology which can last much longer, right?  There is a persistent conspiracy theory that battery manufacturers are trying to hide this new technology in order to maintain their current factory production. I think it may be more about the cost per unit issue which the new ones could be expensive to make at the moment. I need to do more research on this.

As a side note, I read somewhere that our bodies are a living battery. What if we can harness it for our devices? It will be a perpetual machine! Thoughts about the Matrix and the Bible’s Revelations come to mind immediately.

Imagine if a company can introduce a breakthrough in batteries? This should be a huge investment opportunity as we all need longer battery life! My next immediate task will be to learn about the new technology and seek out a company where I can invest in.

The only name I can come up with at the moment is China’s BYD. Warren Buffet invested in it many years ago and its share price has doubled this year alone. They rolled out EV (Electrical Vehicles) buses in China way before Elon came out with trucks last week. They have the capacity and breath to do vertical and horizontal manufacturing of batteries and their by-products.

More research needs to be done for my next investment idea on battery development. It will also be good to know as this breakthrough, like blockchain, will really impact many industries.

Finally, to cryptocurrencies. They continue to surprise me in a pleasant way. Seems like every Tom, Dick, and Harry wants to jump in now. I got in around late Sep and to date, in less than 2 months, my portfolio (of invested funds) is already +40% in absolute terms. I just bought the top 7 currencies from the start to try to understand more about them. Bubbles forming? Who knows? The high volatility is really steepening my learning curve fast! From a Treasury background, I can see how and why they are moving up, as the market capitalization is relatively small and traders like hedge funds are moving in for the kill. The trend is your friend as they say in the FX markets. The future is coming : Blockchain => cryptocurrency.

 

 

 

After Trump’s Asia tour was completed on Monday, it is apparent that the new world order has shifted east. With egocentric maniacs and NIMBY characters running the western countries, we see an emergence of new superpowers to take over the USA’s number one global position.

China is forging ahead to lead the world by taking ownership of its global responsibility as it re-organizes its economy at the same time. This is helped by Trump’s message of wanting to withdraw from the world stage. He was so easily manipulated by the Asian leaders during this trip. Just give him the red carpet treatment, make him feel important and he will be like putty in their hands. Mr “Fake News” even toned down his pre-election rhetoric against China as they fed him generous helpings of ego massaging maneuvers. The sucker punch was delivered at the end of the Asian summit in Vietnam where both US and China supreme leaders presented divergent views of where they aim to go to the rest of the world leaders.

My hats off to China. It is one of the most far-sighted governments in the world. They are planning for 2050 now, a generation away. The Chinese always have patience and they believe in 100 years cycles, where China’s economy will probably peak in 2040, after hitting their low in 1940, just before WWII. That is why they are taking baby steps to achieve their goals, by slowing opening up their internal economy and absorbing the best in class practices in the process.

On the other hand, the decline of the US is evident. Trump tries very hard to do MAGA and now refuses to police the world. Self-interest (selfishness??) is the number one priority and screw the rest of the world. He has handed the global leader crown to China, whether China is ready or not. Japan is also being marginalized, as they struggle with their own unique set of problems – highest debt to GDP ratio in the world, aging population etc.

For Trump, things are getting into a perfect storm very soon. The Mueller investigations on Russian interference is now getting into second gear. The findings are getting juicier every day. Denials are now proven absolutely fake news. Not only were they in bed with the Russians, it seems like the pee-pee tape episode could be real….

The other escalating bombshell is also coming – sexual harassment accusations, the uprising of the oppressed. Each and every business sector in the world is being bombarded with new revelations of previous inappropriate behaviors, the #MeToo movement. It seems like taking out your manhood in front of a total stranger in the 1970s is more common than I thought (???). Trump just tweeted a negative comment on Al Fraken while being silent on Roy Moore. Why? Because Fraken is a Democrat? The fact that Trump is so guilty of such similar practices is so ironic. This could be the final straw that will break the camel’s back for Trump.

Yes, the new world order has changed. US is on the decline and the dragon from the East is rising… The momentum is moving from the West to the East.