Author: CheckW

I am a 56-year-old Asian male. I started this blog 6 years ago when I turned 50. I was at my halftime turning point trying to make sense of what I would like to do with the second half of my life given that I had worked and lived in this little red dot all this time. I am fortunate to have been born at the right time in the 1960s and to have benefited from the prosperity of this country’s rise over the last 50 years.

The reason for starting a blog remains the same: (1) To let my kids have a glimpse of who their old man was like if they ever want to read it, (2) To improve my writing skills – about a thousand words per week and (3) To publicly tell the world of my ambitions and goals so that my commitment is reinforced to make me obligated to carry them through.

I left my last full-time job in Oct 2017 after a disastrous 12 months with a global banking name. The supervisor that hired me for the front office marketing role lost his job less than 3 months after I started. The new boss wanted someone with middle office capability that I did not have. As the new guy, I was overwhelmed by office politics from old-timers aiming for self-preservation. Obviously, I lost and decided to quit.

Since that time, I had come to the realization and acceptance that my old banking career is dead. By then, there was a low probability of me ever getting back into the banking game again. My previous managerial job role looks redundant and obsolete. Supervisors are becoming much younger, into their late thirties to early forties. I also acknowledged that I really hate office politics so much. I begin to value my freedom to do whatever I want, whenever I want.

Thankfully, an opportunity came along in Jan 2018 that allowed me to pivot into a consultancy career. I leveraged on my previous Treasury experience to assist an ex-colleague with his Myanmar microfinance company as a consultant on an annual contract basis. The money was not great but I get to travel every month and learn about a new culture. Most importantly, it was about time an ex-evil banker redeem himself and give back to society. To pay it forward. Other project consultancy work eventually came along which I gladly accepted.

Meanwhile, my lifelong learning journey began to develop as I took up numerous courses to dive deeper into my discovery of new technology to stay relevant. It is an area which interest me and I had a lot of time in between consultancy work to indulge myself. I discovered that I love to be challenged acedemically, to do projects and sit for tests and exams LOL. Lifelong learning is a passion which I embrace now. It gives me much purpose and joy.

The 50s are now the new 30s. Life expectancy has increased to 85 from 78 in 2007. By the time I reach my 80s, living to 100 would be the norm then. Financially, do I have the resources to live that long? Mentally and physically, do I have the strength to last that long? These are the things that I ponder about these days as I may have at least 50 years ahead of me.

I try to keep my life simple by following a easy to follow motto to lead and direct my second half journey: “Stay happy and healthy”. Knowing what is within my control and what is not is the first step to helping me achieve my goals. Having an annual list of new year resolutions to-do items keeps me focused at the beginning of each year for the next 12 months. Actively planning ahead is my go-to mantra to ensure that the goals I set for myself at the start of every year gets met. Even if they are not achieved by Dec, it is the effort and journey there that can be as rewarding.

Fast forward 4 years and a pandemic later and I have not been working full time for quite a while. During this period of time, I managed to complete a 12-mths part-time night study class for a diploma and a 6-months full-time Artificial Intelligence course. There were also numerous short courses plus 2 overseas training trips.

This was all thanks to the Skillsfuture initiative that strived t0 help mid-career citizens pivot to a more relevant and in-demand sector which I took advantage of. I see it as a means to take back the tax dollars I have paid over the years. Being older also means an immediate and unlimited 90% discount on all courses as an added bonus while the balance can be paid using the Skillsfuture credits all citizens get.

Ageism is a concern my age group is starting to feel nowadays. Is it just a concept or is it real? Do we need to look within ourselves and have a mindset change? One does qualify to be called an uncle once you hit 50. Watson’s even gives you a senior card too! It took me a number of years to get used to being greeted “Uncle!!” and to finally embrace it.

Is my work hunger gone? Am I viewed as a less driven worker or a threat to a younger supervisor’s job security as an older person? Is it me or the interviewer having bias thinking? Should I tell the truth or lie through my teeth? Is age working against me now? Do I still have the energy to get back into the rat race?

I do have this nagging feeling nowadays that I could have been passed over for some applications due to my age. The many years of work experience may not stand up against a younger competitor who is cheaper and does not come with old habits and a reluctance to embrace change. I need to face up to Reality.

I understand first hand through my courses that it is much harder for me to pick up new Tech skills versus my younger colleagues who live and breath it since they were born. They have never seen a green monitor, dot matrix printers, telex or a dial up modem in their lives! Meanwhile, uncle here struggles to pick up HTML, Python and GitHub.

There should be a work around to fight Ageism and I believe that it begins from within me. I cannot change the outside world’s view on ageing but I can finetune my mindset. I will continue to proactively embrace change as best as I can, to learn as much as I can absorb. I will set realistic goals to make my lifelong learning journey as interesting as possible while enjoying the ride into the SUNSET. Ideally, I want to be a full-time student and do part-time consultancy work from here henceforth – my BIG picture goal 🙂

And we have now just arrived into Jun. A halfway year to mark and review our plans for 2H’22. Time flies when too many global events, mainly negative, are happening all at once this year.

An eventful half-year to date that most investors would like to forget. It was the exact opposite of 1H’21 where retail meme stocks triumphed against hedge funds, while NFT and Crypto prices were going to the moon. What a difference a year has made as we weather the pandemic journey. 2022 is starting to look like 2020 all over again, except that in the case of the steep Mar 2020 crash, we had a big rally after that for the rest of the year.

This year, we had a China stock meltdown and a Ukraine war leading to more inflation fears and expected interest rate hikes. Talk of stagflation, supply chain breakdowns and record petrol pump prices sank all asset classes. If one looked back now, we would be surprised that so many well-known stocks during Covid have already dropped in price by between 75 to 90% from their all-time highs last year.

It has been a painful 6 months since Dec of suffering from volatile and wild swings in all asset classes. The general trend was down and each mini-rally is starting to look like a dead cat bounce that gets slapped down again. The strategy of buying on dips that had worked since 2008 GFC seems to be in doubt now. Do we use up our last cash reserves to average down or wait a little longer? Most have adopted a wait to lay low to try to weather the storm.

With Covid receding to the background and more people travelling into summer, I believe that we are slowing returning back to normalcy. I may want to stop my blog weekly countdown of the pandemic soon and it becomes irrelevant. Even if a new virus hits us, the response time would be even much faster now with the new biotech we have learnt thanks to Covid.

I just finished reading The Code Breaker by Walter Isaacson https://www.amazon.com/Code-Breaker-Jennifer-Doudna-Editing/dp/1982115858 and am comforted that the many years of research and preparation with CRISPR and mRNA were put to good use to fight Covid. Future pandemic responses will be even faster as the world now has tools to splice DNA like never before to manufacture new vaccination solutions to new problems and even solve age-old ones in the near future.

The future looks brighter now on the biotech medical front. Oil prices should come down as supplies increase. US frackers will be attracted to come online again as prices are way above their $55 breakeven costs. Russia will fail at trying to capture Ukraine as the war drags on and it runs out of funds. China eventually becomes pragmatic again on Covid and decides that getting the economy and supply chain moving again is better than the alternative. Guess I am a natural optimist? Or maybe I am perhaps speaking from existing held positions and therefore a bit biased?

Back to my personal mid-year review and what to do next as I plan for the next half of 2022. I had managed to complete the full-time NUS FinTechSG course in Apr, went for a trip to New York and also just did a short one-week classroom training (Data Analytics for work using Excel) this week. I was pleasantly surprised to learn that Excel had so many useful functions that I can apply to real-life problems with an analytical mindset and approach. It will be very useful for me to revise through the notes again to fully absorb the new Excel learnings.

My goal of being a lifelong learner has not changed and I am starting to look at more courses to sign up for in my quest for new knowledge that interest me. My timing is lucky too as the authorities had also decided to extend training funding for mid-career switch citizens. More new courses are starting to appear from this month onwards.

Two in particular that I am focusing on now are actually a repeat of what they did last year. They are planning to start a new batch in 2022 and are open for application soon. Whether I am successful or not, it is important that I try for them anyway. I plan to fail if I fail to plan.

The first is by BCG called RISE 2.0 https://bcg-rise.com/rise-2-0. It is an update of the same one that they had done before. There are 3 tracks to choose from: Digital Sales & Marketing: Learn how to accelerate business performance across the entire sales funnel, Business & Data Analytics: Learn the best-in-class tools and approaches used by digital champions in business and Digital Transformation & Change Management: Learn to lead digital transformation strategies and approaches. Since I had taken up IBM’s SGUnited AI program in 2021, I might not be eligible for this new course though. But let’s see how this turns out when they open for applications.

The other that has opened now is IBF’s TFIP program https://www.ibf.org.sg/programmes/Pages/TFIP.aspx . My first application attempt last year was not successful. Maybe my expectations were too unrealistic or that Ageism worked against me. I will have to adjust accordingly this year and optimize my past experience to help me pivot into the relevant areas which can give me a higher chance of success.

They have many tracks for application and it is a means for those interested to go into S’pore’s financial sector via the IT angle. They have increased the allotment to 700, twice the number in 2021. There will be screening rounds, apptitude tests and interviews before the successful candidate is offered a 12 or 18 months contract with participating Financial Institution with monthly allowances of SGD 4.5 or 5.5k.

Time to update my CV in order to submit my application. Closing dates in Jun while I also brush up my studies for my new driving lessons in order to earn my license again. This month should pass by pretty quickly with lots of activities and the celebration of my younger son’s 21st too. Before I know it, Dec will be around the corner and I will have to plan my 2023 New Year resolutions LOL…

The Americans are really crazy. Non-stop multiple mass shootings only happen there and nowhere else in the world. And what do they do? Inaction for the past 20+ years and to deny the facts and reality. It has become even more frequent and predictable.

Let’s look at the statistics first. Between 1968 to 2017, there were 1.5 million firearm deaths in America. That’s higher than the number of soldiers killed in every US conflict since the War for Independence in 1776. In 2020 alone, 45,000 died at the hands of a gun, more than any year on record and it was a 43% increase from 2010.

Year to date 2022 (Jan to May), there were 213 mass shootings which included 27 school shootings. The latest school shooting is the 554th one since the Columbine massacre in 1999 ie about 25 per year. How the hell does a parent feel safe as they send their kid to school daily? Why is it only in America that school kids have regular drills to practise for mass shooter incidents? Guns are now the leading cause of childhood deaths in America, even topping car accidents.

The latest school shooting: a craze 18-year old killed 19 children and 2 teachers in a cold-blooded matter after shooting his grandmother. A survivor heard him telling the murdered kids, “It’s time to die now”. The killer worked at Wendy’s to save up $4k to purchase 2 AR15 assault weapons the moment he turned 18 a week ago. And this was just 10 days after another crazy 18 year old kid went to Buffalo to shoot and kill 10 persons of colour in a supermarket while sparring and apologizing to a white cashier. White supremacy and replacement theory nut case.

So it seems like you are only safe in America and stands a higher chance of survival if you are white. All other races are game for mass shooters. America as a country has the highest per capita ownership of guns that is twice the number of the next 2nd country. Why do they need so many guns for? Why is there a fetish for semi-automatic assault weapons meant for war?

So what is the solution now? More guns!! Every pro-gun idiot wants to encourage everyone to arm themselves to the teeth. They even suggest that schools should be fortified fortresses and make all teachers carry a gun to school. This is madness!

The 2nd amendment right to carry arms has been taken to ridiculous levels. The forefathers were talking about muskets and pistols hundreds of years ago, not military-grade assault weapons of mass destruction. Texas, where this school shooting happened, actually made it much easier to purchase guns late last year.

Elected officials can’t seem to get their act together to try to prevent this from happening again and again. GOP and Democrats blame each other. Republicans are so full of NRA money that they oppose gun reforms or tighter security checks, let alone doing the easy step to raise the minimum age of gun ownership. There are many things you can only do at 21 or need to apply and qualify for a license but yet 18 year olds currently can still easily obtain an assault weapon of choice.

Senate filibusters and the need to get 60 votes means that passing gun reforms are dead in the water even before they are proposed. Democrats have a slight majority (50+1) and need at least 10 GOP senators to pass the new policies. But the GOP votes as a block and refuse to budge or even try to negotiate a compromise.

It ironic that GOP is fighting Roe Vs Wade to protect the unborn babies, yet they refuse to protect the young ones that are already born. It is an outright contradiction. Wouldn’t making it harder for young teenagers to buy AR15s by raising the required age to 21 be a simple stop gap measure? No, they want more guns and make it even easier for everyone to own more guns. Madness!!

Americans are proud of their freedom and democracy but shouldn’t they be ashamed that they have the most number of gun deaths in the world? Inaction for more that 10 years after the 2012 Sandy Hook massacre and nothing has changed. Schools are no more a safe space but a soft target for innocents to be slaughtered.

90% of all Americans support some form of gun regulation but are held hostage by the minority and pro-gun lobbyists. The elected officials are not listening to the will of the people. They are blind to the violence and only worry about their re-elections. The current state of affairs is truly pathetic for a country that calls itself a superpower. It cannot seemed to get its act together for this specific national disease.

Nothing changes. We await the next massacre. Picture this: A mass shooting happens in a gun-friendly county and all the residents whip out their guns to try to shoot the perceived shooter, turning it into a Wild West movie set shootout. The police come in and see so many people with guns. Erring on the cautious side, the police assume that all are active shooters and proceed to mow down all of them with gunfire. The casualties will be horrendous. A shitshow is in the making and is likely to happen sometime in the foreseeable future.

Are we on track to get back to normal again after more than 24 months of the once in a lifetime pandemic? What is a Normal anyway? Does the Old even exist anymore?

Everyone is trying to figure out how to get back to the previous way of doing things but yet this episode had totally changed our perception of the way things can be done going forward. We are likely to have a WFH hybrid model and business travel just doesn’t make sense anymore with Zoom calls. Why waste hours and days when everything is just a video call away? It boggles the mind to remember how inefficient we were at doing business in those pre-Covid days.

QR codes, contactless payments and contact tracing have accelerated tech adoption in a big way. Even the uncles and aunties have to pick up the skills, or else they cannot utilize the CDC vouchers nor go visit the wet markets anymore. Tech adoption has accelerated tremendously over the last 2 years. I even was impressed about myself being able to finish 2 full time courses (6 and 3 months of classes, project work and tests) totally over Zoom without ever physically meeting my classmates…

Now that Omicron is behind us and that we have a very good chance of getting out of this Covid nightmare, everyone is rapidly trying to get back to a resemblance of the way things used to be. We managed to do a recent trip to New York cautiously as restrictions were relaxed. Now we are told that for those that had the vaccinations with boosters, getting Omicron perhaps will provide the best additional protection from future variants!

I had been a sucker on organizing class reunions for more than 10 years. Somehow I enjoyed the planning process and seeing people getting nostalgic to meet up again after leaving school eons ago. The last one we had for our secondary/junior college (class of 1982/84) was in 2016 and we had a birthday cake to celebrate all our 50th together. We had 128 attendees that day. The thinking was to do another one again in 2021 to celebrate our milestone of being able to withdraw our CPF at 55. But that did not happen, thanks to Delta.

My co-organizer and partner in crime met up recently for breakfast and talked about the possibility of finally being able to do another reunion again. We might call it “The year after CPF withdrawal Reunion” to reflect on our age and nearing retirement. We decided to kickstart by polling our classmates via our FB groups and email. The response was generally positive. So at least it confirms that that everyone is getting more nostalgic with age and are itching to hook up again to talk about the good old days.

Now comes the tricky part for the planning of the logistics. We targeted a mid-Aug date at the earliest. It will also provide sufficient heads up to everyone to lock in the date. But before we officially anounced the date to everyone, we need to check out possible venues and book a location. Post-Covid, this is the toughest thing to do now. Thanks to inflation, prices are higher and there are still some restrictions left for large group gatherings. We decided to asked our classmates for leads and recommendations and a few kind souls have responded.

We may all have to wear masks during the event and have sit down meals instead. We have started contacting some places and asking for quotations. The other issue that pops up: in the unlikely situation that the event has to be cancelled, we might lose our deposit. It happened to another group of friends last year and they had to sell all the T-shirts they had printed for their event to recoup their costs.

We are thinking of perhaps asking for a token booking fee upfront from those that indicated that they are coming. This shows commitment and also reduces our financial planning risk. With epayments like PayNow available, this logistical part could be handled better now. Let’s see how this will evolve as we try to lock down the venue within the next few weeks.

My NUS FinTechSG course finished in early Apr after about 3+ months. It was a good deep dive intro by the School of Computing but a bit too brief and intense at times for a non-IT guy like me. Time to look forward to what I should do next for my lifelong halftime learning journey.

Luckily for me, the government funding for mid-career switchers like me was renewed for this year and most of the new courses will be launched in the May/Jun period. Time to do some homework and attend the briefing sessions to get a sense of what I want to do next. No sound or follow up from the Fintech e-speed interview I went to in mid-Apr though.

While I like to get into the more sexy topics like AI and Cloud Computing, my limited IT knowledge may be a problematic hurdle. I might have to lower my expectations and pitch for those courses and jobs which I can pivot to by leveraging on my past marketing experience. Let’s see how it will turn out. We plan to fail if we fail to plan.

Latest estimates are that the recent asset meltdown has whipped out more than $9 trillion of value year to date, much more than when the bubble bursted for the 2008 GFC or the 2000 Internet craze. This equal opportunity bear market had already caused the world’s 500 wealthiest persons to lose $1 trillion of their portfolios.

While it is comforting that everyone is also suffering one of the worst few months in recent history, had anyone seen it coming?? Bears have been shouting for more than 14 years since the massive easing by central banks to save the markets after the 2008 GFC. Is this it now or is this just another buy on dip strategy that has been so successfully played out over and over so many times? Are we heading to a recession or is the Powell put going to be activated again?

This is like a death by a thousand cuts situation where the frog in the pot is being boiled. While the slide in prices was over weeks, the dramatic drop still caught many by surprise. So many well know stocks are now less than a third of their highs now. Many others like Chinese stocks are only a tenth of their 2021 price. The savage bear had clobbered all asset classes and none were spared.

It was the turn of cryptos this week. They were supposed to be an inflation hedge but that did not work now. Even Gold prices are down. The trickle became a stampede when one of the stablecoin was threatened. Everyone decided to get out at the same time.

The main culprit? Luna token and Terra UST stablecoin. They are interlinked as the creators had devised an algorithmic mathematical process to ensure that the peg between them would automatically self adjust to maintain it. Until it didn’t work this week.

The value of Luna suddenly dropped off the cliff to become almost worthless in a matter of days as too much new supply was created by the algo and the selling exacerbated the price free fall. The suddenness of the action made it a shitcoin immediately. This in turn caused the Terra UST stablecoin to fall below its 1 to 1 peg to the USD to less than 30 cents. As UST was a stablecoin, it also affected USDT, one of the most popular stablecoins at the moment, threatened to bring down the whole crypto ecosystem.

All cryptos went into a sudden free fall which triggered more margin calls on leveraged positions, leading to more selling. BTC, XRP and ETH dropped like a brick as uncertainty within the market asked if the very foundation of the crypto markets was at risk. Crypto billionaires basically lost their shirts this week, losing from 60 to 99% of their wealth within days. And we are talking about big numbers here.

Let’s analyze the big picture now and try to make sense of where do we go from here. The 3 main macro themes at the moment are the Ukraine/Russia war, Oil price and China’s Covid response. By predicting what will happen to each of them, perhaps we can logically come to a better near term projection to help us adjust our investment strategy.

The Ukraine war has been going on for too long and Russia does not seem to be gaining ground. The US is openly mocking Putin by sending billions of new weapons to them. Every important American political person is lining up for flights to meet up with Zelensky every other day. Russia’s annual military budget is about US$ 66 billion and America is already promising at least $44 billion to Ukraine to date.

Russia’s tanks, ships and equipment are being decimated all over the cities of Ukraine with sniper missiles supplied by NATO, the US and other countries. Spring is coming and the roads become muddier for the Russian tanks to advance, even as they become sitting ducks for the shoot and forget anti-tank weapons.

The world has ganged up against Mother Russia. It is in a no-win situation while the war is costing them more than a few billion dollars per day. The forecasted short war has dragged on for too long. Latest rumours of a coup to get rid of Putin could eventually come true, besides talk that he is ill with cancer. I do not think Russia can keep this up any longer as they are running on empty soon. The nuclear option is scary for everyone and hopefully a rational solution prevails.

Oil prices have been struggling to go higher to stay above $110 per barrel. This level is too attractive for oil producing countries to ignore. Non-Russian producers will glading pump more to sell as it will also be seen as a pro-Ukraine stance besides earning more revenue. I sense that the US oil frackers will also be turning on their taps very soon as the price is above their breakeven cost of $55. Biden may be more sympathetic to them as it will also help to arrest inflation.

Oil had broken above $100 (high of 147) 3 times previously (2008, 2011, 2013) and dropped each time back to below this level quick quickly as suppliers rush to take advantage to lock in high prices for future delivery. Latest US inflation numbers last week surprisingly showed a slight drop. As long as the Fed is on track to raise interest rates by 50 bps twice in Jun and Jul, I think inflation will be well contained.

The past few weeks financial markets correction is actually a much needed pull back from all the asset bubbles that have been created during Covid. Newly created asset classes like SPACs and NFTs needed to come down to earth with their ridiculous pricing of “nothingness”.

Finally, we have China with its zero Covid strategy. There was a report that they are fearful of forecasts of 1.6 million additional deaths if they remove all Covid restrictions like the rest of the world. To be honest, the US has about 250,000 deaths related to the annual flu season every year for a population of 300+ million. China, with its bigger population, will therefore also have at least a million deaths from flu this every year anyway. The elderly do pass on annually regardless of Covid.

China has to weigh against being pragmatic versus being overly cautious to decide what is best for its people. Their supply chains have to be working to prevent citizen protests from getting out of control. They will have to let go of Covid restrictions eventually to rejoin the rest of the world.

In summary from the above 3 topics, I do see a return to normalcy for the financial markets soon. Perhaps it is a good time to selectively use up our cash reserve to buy on dips our favoured assets. I am still a crypto HODL and will aim to buy more of the top ones. I will need to do more research on stocks to carefully utilize my remaining free cash, given that my portfolio of Tech and China names had not been doing well recently.

Then again, as the markets have shown last week, sentiment may prevail over logic and we may again get another black swan. Like Terra Luna, the 6 Sigma probability event means that the machine ain’t suppose to be broken until it suddenly does.

The world had just bounced back from a once in a 100 years black swan Covid event. I have no doubt that it is resilient enough to weather this current bear market to come out stronger to face the brave new world.

Yes, we survived our New York vacation and returned home safely on Thurs to a country that has almost no Covid restrictions anymore. It feels nice yet strange that we are seeing normalcy for the first time in more than 2 years.

I was in New York for the last 2 weeks getting to know the city better again after my first and last trip there in 2005. My wife was there for a business trip and I tagged along for a vacation with my younger son who joined us from Paris. He was there with his med school classmates for a well-deserved group vacation which was delayed from last Dec due to Omicron.

The weather was erratic, hovering between 7 to 18 degrees Celsius with some sunny days and light rain but mainly cloudy and overcast. We signed up for a number of free walking tours where you tip the guide at the end based on what you think it was worth. This concept is very popular in Europe and previously, we had good experiences mainly in Italy.

We did the New York introduction, Financial district/Chinatown/Little Italy and Manhattan at night walking tours. Also visited the Statue of Liberty and the 9/11 museum monuments. Security was not as tight in 2005 as it has been more than 20 years since that unforgettable attack on the twin towers.

There were 2 main takeaways I had while there. Firstly, everything was so freaking expensive and chargeable!! Even leaving your luggage in the hotel after checking out was $5 per piece per day. The compulsory tipping was crazy as they want you to tip at least 20% as a service charge for all the bills. The total bill would come to you with the government tax add on of about 9% and a suggested tip of 18/20/25% to choose from, with the numbers breakdown to help you write it down before signing off. I rather they just add service charge upfront and be like S’pore with only 10%.

Dollar for dollar, prices were slightly higher than in S’pore but the USD/SGD exchange rate is 1.3800 making the final amount much higher for us in SGD. One cannot get a decent meal for less than $20 per person. A slice of pizza with a drink is the cheapest at under $10. Inflation is sky-high and it is reflected everywhere.

There was the other major takeaway I got from New York: Marijuana/Cannabis/Weed. I could smell it everywhere, especially while at Times Square and most public parks. Apparently, the city finally legalized recreational Marijuana last year and it has seen an explosion of business since then.

I see one-man stores being set up in the public parks, and food trucks selling weed candies everywhere. Every seller has a particular weed mix to push and you just get used to knowing the smell as it is in the air all the time. New York became the 15th state to legalize the recreational use of marijuana and many weed companies are rushing to open up in this new market space which is estimated to be worth $7 billion.

I guess this is a blowback to the last 10+ years of synthetic drugs thanks to the TV series “Breaking Bad”. The opioid crisis where the manufactured drug made addiction so severe. A gram of these impure manufactured synthetic drugs can kill you – Prince, George Michael etc. Hence I believe there is a return back to naturally cultivated drugs again. Marijuana at least is naturally grown and less likely to become fatal. The argument is that it is no worse than getting high on alcohol or smoking a cigar.

Covid now seems to be an afterthought after 2 long years of restrictions. The light symptoms of Omicron have encouraged most countries to reopen, even as new variants continue to show up. Everyone is fed up with lockdowns, masks and vaccine fights. Are we near the finishing line soon? Can I stop the weekly Covid count on my blogs? My blog today is week 114. Is Covid becoming harmless and like the common flu going forward? Can we move on back to the life we knew pre-2020?

We had a pleasant surprise during the trip when S’pore announced a relaxation of Covid rules from 26 Apr onwards. No negative test is required for entry into the country anymore after this date. That was a great relief for us as New York continues to be a hotbed for Omicron and the latest report indicates that 55% of New Yorkers probably already had Covid before.

When we were getting ready for our flight to New York to begin our vacation, a family member tested positive. We were worried that we could not get a negative test 24 hours before our SQ flight as that was the minimum USA requirement to board the flight. Thankfully, everything turned out alright and we had a great family vacation. The highlight was our short trip to Niagra Falls in Buffalo at the end of the trip. That ticked off an item on my bucket list – we saw one of the wonders of Mother Nature.

It was a strange and difficult week for the financial markets. The Fed finally hike interest rates by 50 points on Wed and DJI rallied by 900+ points as they promised not to have 75 points hike in the near future. Then all the gains were given back and more the next day as it fell 1,000+ points. Bonds and all asset classes fell in tandem on Thurs too.

There were probably a lot of margin calls as the weakness of the markets had been felt for weeks and this sudden shocking turn around was the last straw for a number of highly leveraged investors. Cryptos going into the weekend fell too as margin calls were further triggered into this 24/7 space.

We do know that the Fed is likely to hike another 50 bps twice in Jun and July but is this enough? It depends on the outcome of the Ukraine war which has been affecting oil and commodity prices. Sanctions on Russia could remain for much longer which could exacerbate the squeeze on raw material prices. Supply chain issues can get worse if China continues with its zero Covid restrictions.

It is difficult to decide if it is the right time to average down or if this is the bear market that we have been waiting for since the 2008 GFC. Rates have remained low for so long and it had inflated all asset classes. But can this cheap money trend be reversed as America pumped in 30% of new money to support the economy in 2021? The US Dollar is currently riding high as a safe haven currency but if it ever collapses, then it is game over for the financial markets.

Will China and Russia be able to move away from the global dependence on the US dollar now? That will be a tragic blow to the Fed’s magic printing machine if it comes true. This year has been off to a terrible start since Jan and more volatility is expected into this month. I wish I have a crystal ball to see into the near future…

I like to start off the blog to say that I regretted selling my Tesla shares a few years ago. If I had held the 200 shares I bought then till today, it would have been worth USD 1 million now, I kid you not.

At that time, pre-split, I was comfortably buying and selling within the $150 to $350 range. Until the mad man surfaced and started his Twitter tirades. He hinted that he wanted to take Tesla private at $420 and funding had been secured. It was not really true and the SEC came after him. He fought back and Twit even more messages, like a kid trying to defy his adult parent.

I decided to hit the exit button after that as I had no clue what he would do next. He was like an unhinged man on the verge of a breakdown and living in his own La-La land. I was unable to evaluate the stock fundamentally by then. Then the epic battle with the shorts happened and it was squeezed to $900. It stayed there for a while before surging again to $2,000. Then Tesla did 5 for 1 stock split. The new price become $400 and it then moved to $1,000 recently.

Assuming if I held my original 200 shares, it would have been 1,000 shares worth a cool $1 million now from a $30k investment, a 33.33x times home run. I would have been able to use some of the spare profits to swap my old 10+ years old car for a new Tesla 3 easily. A lot of funds who shorted Tesla all the way up left a trail of blood in their battle against one man with a vision. At the same time, a lot of believers of Saint Elon retail investors have now achieved the “Fuck-You” money to retire, thanks to this genius.

I finally read the book on Elon Musk by Ashlee Vance during my Covid quarantine in Oct 2020. I wished that I had read it much earlier and be converted to a hardcore fan before I decided to sell my shares. It opened my eyes to why he is the way he is. His brilliance is to think big and bet it all. He was a systematic strategist who could out think anyone once he put his mind to it. No problem was unsolvable once Elon is committed to it. Failures were learning experiences for him. So I decided to get in again at $600.

His SpaceX story was also fascinating, plus the Solar City acquisition as well. How can one of the original founder of PayPal pivot into Space and EV cars so successfully? SpaceX also has Starlink that provides internet access via satellites. When Russia invaded Ukraine, he recently offered StarLink to them within a weekend!!! He just sold all his properties and now wants to travel to Mars…

His nonsense is part of the appeal of someone who has been there, done it and now become the richest man on earth. He anchored a recent SNL (Saturday Night Live) comedy episode and revealed that he has Asperger’s Syndrome too, a form of Autism. That is why his mind is wired very differently from you and me but that made him capable of doing the impossible with sheer mind will power – his superhero power. He was also teasing people to buy a shitcoin crypto called DodgeCoin in the show which many bought into his words, me included. That didn’t end well though, but he was just kidding…. 🙁

He is one of the biggest stars on Twitter with 82 million followers. He doesn’t care what others think and loves to tease and troll his followers for fun. Recently, he asked them if he should sell 10% of his shares. Someone suggested that he donate funds to solve world hunger. He pushed back to say that if they can come up with a strong solution, he will donate $6 billion immediately.

Eventually, he did sell 10% of his Tesla stock holdings but it was due to the stock options that were granted to him a long time ago which was expiring soon. The Strike price was below 10 when it was issued to him while the current market price last year was $1,000. He was immediately saddled with a huge tax bill which he had to exercise the options and sell them straight away. For 2021, he will pay $11 billion to the IRAS. This will be the biggest tax payment on record in history for an individual in America.

He loves to keep his fans from guessing what is on his mind. Being the richest man now with a $260+ billion fortune helps. He doesn’t give a shit to anyone, even the SEC. His brain is wired so differently that he cannot take a “no” or “cannot” as an answer.

This week, he dropped a new bomb again. He talked about creating his own social media company a few weeks ago and then became the largest individual shareholder of Twitter. He had ideas on how he wants it to be run to optimize its potential. He originally wanted to be a board member and then decided against it.

Then he announced to the world that he might as well buy all of Twitter and take it private for a cool $43 billion instead. Talk about the balls this guy has… He wants to share Twitter’s source code to the public and create a level playing field for the freedom of speech where all voices will be heard. Just like the Clubhouse room “The Million Man Marathon” which I listen to daily – all views are heard from all sides of the spectrum. And he wants an “Edit” button on Twitter too LOL….

As one of Twitter’s biggest shareholders, the Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin Talal stated his opposition to Musk’s takeover bid. And guess how Elon responded? With a Twit, of course: “What are the Kingdom’s views on journalistic freedom of speech?” – to the country that rank’s one of the worst in the world for press freedom. Ouch and bad burn… the irony is scorching.

Elon might have grand plans for Twitter, but he might also walk away if his bid is rejected and therefore earn a nice profit when he sells his stake. Absolute power corrupts? This will be the ultimate test – the new owner is the biggest customer/mouth piece too.

On the personal front this week, I finally had the courage to pull out an unsalvageable tooth that had been bothering me for years. Root canal and crown done previously could not saved it. Implants next.

I finally completed my NUS FintechSG course and signed up for an e-speed interview with a potential FinTech company on Wed. I think the 10 minutes session went well but let’s see what happens next. Looking forward to finally having a physical meet up with classmates next week after 3 months of Zoom classes. Then its off to New York for a break, thanks to my wife’s business trip. I will be back in May to plan the next steps of my halftime journey.

Things are slowing returning to normal again. The last 2 years seems like a long nightmare we have just woken up from. Though it felt like such a long period of time, the last 24 months also felt like they have passed us like a blink of an eye.

S’pore is finally opening up and masks are not required outdoors while outlets are allowed to open beyond 1030 pm. I have been conditioned to go home and sleep early and I am not sure if I can have late nights anymore. Further relaxations are in store for 19 Apr.

Live music is allowed now and I went to the same venue last Sat to watch a band play where I watched my last performance back in Mar 2020. At that time, I requested the song “My Corona, I will Survive” (as a parody to “My Sharona”) as my private protest to the unknown virus. I had no idea that our world would be turned upside down for the next 24 months.

Going outside for a few hours while been trapped inside the house was the norm for a long time. My daily morning runs felt so precious as I breath the fresh air around me, wary of keeping a large social distance from anoth human being. Even going out for half a day was infrequent when we navigated the ever changing restrictions as the various strains swept through the world. Better to err on the side of caution in the absence of data before vaccines were available a year later.

This week on Tues, I finally completed a full day outdoors! Went to the gym in the morning, met friends for coffee. Visited the National Gallery and then my favourite Sim Lim electronic mall before heading to Dhoby Ghaut to do my regular blood donation. Came home by 5 pm filling very satisfied that I had done a lot that day.

My NUS FinTechSG course has also come to an end this week after 3 months of Zoom classes with 30 classmates. The 3rd module consist of 2 topics – Blockchain Smart Contracts and Algo-Trading. Our concept project presentation on voting using smart contracts, Blockchain, NFTs and Metaverse which I mentioned last week went OK. The trainer was a bit impatient to want to get it over with and felt that it will not work for countries as large as America. Oh well…

Overall, this course by the School of Computing enabled me to dive deeper into the technical side of Fintech topics. I struggled with Module 2’s DevOps/API concepts while trying to pick up HTML, CSS and JavaScript programming languages. It was a good intro for me into the nuts and bolts of FinTech as I don’t think I will will be able to do so if I tried to do self learning.

We would have a e-Speed dating-like interview session this week to meet up with potential employers. It will help me assess my marketability given my past experience and newly acquired skills, given the ageism disadvantage. Meanwhile, I have proposed a face to face meet up with my classmates next week as we have never done that at all throughout the course via Zoom. It will also be good to do some FinTech networking while celebrating the 19 Apr reopening too 🙂

Before I reassess my next steps game plan after the completion of this course, I will take a break for now. This is thanks to an opportunity to join my wife for her business trip to New York. We will be there in late Apr with our younger son.

The last and only time I was in New York was in 2005. I will now have the time to fully explore the city and feel its vibrancy coming back to life after Covid. Like us, they had battled the virus that had ravaged big cities. New York was one of the major epicenter of the virus. The residents did not know what hit them and they suffered a lot of casualities. It has a long history of fighting back (eg. 9/11) and I would see it first hand on how it is making a comeback and leaning to be normal again.